[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N40W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N-08N between 11W-15W, from 04N-07N between 16W-21W, from 03N-
06N between 23W-26W, and from 01S-01N between 38W-41W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N-04N between 44W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is positioned in the northeast Gulf with light to
gentle anticyclonic winds there. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow
covers the remainder of the basin, except fresh to locally strong
west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 1-2 ft
range in the northeast Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except locally
to 5 ft west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The high pressure over north Florida will linger through mid week
as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through
early this morning, and again tonight. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh return flow will prevail across the remainder of the Gulf
through the end of the week, except gentle to moderate in the
northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is north of the basin while low pressure is over
northern Colombia. This pressure pattern is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, across the approach to the
Windward Passage, and north of Colombia in the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in the eastern
Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh elsewhere. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere,
highest near the fresh to strong winds. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are possible in the trade wind flow. Deep
convection is occurring yet again over northern and central
Colombia with heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. Refer to
statements issued by your national meteorological agency for more
details.

The high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage,
and off Colombia early today and then again tonight. Winds and
seas will diminish slightly across the basin starting mid week as
the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. This pattern will
support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by the end
of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A very slow moving and dissipating cold front extends from near
22N62W to 19N67W. Scattered showers are possible within 90-150 nm
either side of the front. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft
were occurring south of 22N and west of the front, but these
conditions should be diminishing and subsiding through the early
morning hours. High pressure is centered east of Cape Canaveral,
Florida with a ridge axis along 27N/28N. Mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are found under the ridging and north of 22N,
except in the northeast portion of the offshore waters where
moderate to fresh W-NW are noted around a low pressure system well
north of the discussion area. Seas in the 8-11 ft range associated
with that system are spreading across the waters north of 29N
between 50W-68W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 75W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere
west of 50W.

A dissipating cold front, now transitioning to a remnant trough,
is noted from 31N40W to 22N62W. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible within 60-120 nm either side of the front.

Another low pressure system is north of the discussion waters in
the eastern Atlantic just west-southwest of the Azores. Associated
fresh to strong winds and seas in the 7-10 ft range are found
north of 28N between 25W-35W. A ridge axis is along 23N with light
to gentle anticyclonic winds from 20N-24N and east of 50W.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5-8 ft are south of
20N.

The decaying front will drift southeast across the Tropical N
Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico through tonight. Winds
and seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and
subside today. By midweek, another low pressure system could bring
strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and north
of 29N. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend
ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net