[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, 02N30W,
01N40W, to the Equator along 42W, to the coastal waters of
Brazil along 47W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. A surface ridge
extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N79W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1021 mb high pressure
center that is near 29N84W, to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Another part of a ridge also extends from the north central Gulf
of Mexico into  the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in north Florida will shift eastward through mid
week, as a cold front moves slowly through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, before stalling in the northern Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to increase by Saturday, while
moderate to fresh winds in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will
diminish. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N northward from
75W westward. The precipitation is associated with the frontal
boundary that was extending from Haiti to the coastal border
areas of Honduras and Nicaragua, 24 hours ago.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in
Colombia, within 75 nm on either side the line 09N76W 07N75W
06N74W 05N73W 04N69W.

The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows that broad
anticyclonic wind flow will be on top of  broad 700 mb cyclonic
wind flow, from Jamaica southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure in north Florida will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward
Passage, and off the coast of Colombia tonight and Tuesday
night. The winds and the seas will diminish slightly across the
basin starting mid week, as the high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward. This pattern will support fresh winds and building
seas north of Honduras by late Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N46W, to 26N50W
23N60W. The front becomes stationary from 23N60W to 20N70W and
the northern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken multilayered
clouds, that are within 165 nm to the north of the dissipating
front, and within 120 nm to the south of the front, from 50W
westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the dissipating cold
front.

A cold front was along 32N29W 27N34W 26N40W, 48 hours ago.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the area of the now-dissipated cold front,
from 22N northward from 50W eastward.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 24N43W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 28N
between 20W and the dissipating cold front.

High pressure is building eastward along 27N, to the north of a
stalled frontal boundary, that is reaching from 20N62W to
northwest of the Mona Passage. Seas to 8 feet to the west of
this boundary and south of 22N will subside overnight. By
midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds
and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 29N. The
winds and the seas may increase east of Florida this weekend
ahead of a cold front moving into the southeastern U.S.

$$
mt/jl
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