[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1639 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the coast of Brazil
at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N
between 40W and 45W as well as between 03N and 06N east of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure is located over the SE United States with
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf and seas
of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh SE winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of
Mexico are accompanied by 5 to 6 ft seas. No significant showers
or deep convection are occurring over the Gulf today.

High pressure over the Bahamas will linger through mid week as a
cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley,
before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula once again tonight.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across
the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week, except
gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high just north of
the Bahamas and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong NE
trades north of Colombia and moderate to fresh NE to E trades
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just north of
Colombia and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. While no significant deep
convection is occurring, scattered showers are present in the
coastal waters of Panama, Honduras, and Belize.

The high north of the basin will continue to support fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and off Colombia tonight. High pressure is forecast to
shift east and gradually weaken allowing winds and seas to
diminish across the basin by the middle of the week. This pattern
will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by
the end of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...



$$
Landsea
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