[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A large extratropical low pressure system
with a central pressure of 1000 mb is centered north of the
discussion waters near 34N36W. An ASCAT pass from Saturday morning
showed gale force W-NW winds north of 30.5N between 38W-39W.
Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere north of 27.5N
between 33W-44W. Seas of 14-16 ft are analyzed to be occurring
within the gale force wind area. The gales are forecast to end
for the waters south of 31N very soon, by 03/1800 UTC. However,
fresh to strong W winds and seas of 8-12 ft will continue north of
28N and east of 45W through Sunday. See the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N24W to 01N46W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-07N
between 13W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-46W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from
03S-04N between 42W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1033 mb is centered over the southern Appalachian
Mountains with a ridge axis extending from western North Carolina
to east Texas. Moderate E flow prevails over the western half of
the Gulf. Strong NE-E winds are found in the SE Gulf and Florida
Straits, in the wake of the strong, late-season cold front that
passed the area Thursday night, that is now well southeast of the
basin. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell across the
southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-5 ft range for the
northwest half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the
southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside through early
Sun. High pressure will prevail into the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night Sun night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N75W to the western
tip of Jamaica. A stationary front continues from the western tip
of Jamaica to NE Honduras near 15.5N84W. A recent ASCAT data pass
from late Saturday morning shows strong to locally near gale
force NE winds behind the front near the Cayman Islands, in the
lee of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
are elsewhere behind the front from the Yucatan Channel to
Honduras. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the NW Caribbean behind
the front. Isolated showers are near the front near the Windward
Passage, Jamaica, and over northern Honduras.

Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen just offshore near the Panama/Colombia border,
mainly south of 11N between 76W-79W. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas average 4-6 ft across the eastern and
central Caribbean, except up to 7 ft offshore NW Colombia.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Windward
Passage to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where
it will stall and gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of
Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the
weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through early
next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 32N62W to 25N68W through the Turks and
Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba near 20N75W, as of 03/1500 UTC. A
pre-frontal surface trough is located about 75 nm ahead of the
front, north of 21N. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are within 180 nm southeast of the cold front, mainly
north of 21N and east of 71W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
N-NE winds for about 400-500 nm behind the front from Cuba to 32N,
including the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are outside of that area, offshore of central and
northern Florida. Wave heights are 8-12 ft behind the front, and
NE of the Bahamas. A NNW-SSE oriented surface ridge axis extends
through a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N53W to near 23N47W. Light
to gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of this ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 27N65W to the
eastern tip of Cuba will stall Sun evening from 21N65W across
Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are
expected to last through Sun in the wake of the cold front. Strong
winds are expected in and near the Windward Passage through Mon.
High pressure will then settle across the region early next week
with more tranquil marine conditions forecast.

$$
Hagen
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