[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near the border
of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N19W to 02S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-07N between 11W-
14W, from 03N-05N between 14W-17W, from 02N-04N between 31W-39W,
and from 01S-04N between 39W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley with a
ridge axis extending from the North Carolina Piedmont through the
high to northeast Texas. NE-E flow dominates the eastern half of
the Gulf under the ridging, with E-SE flow across the western half
of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds linger in the southeast Gulf in
the wake of a strong, late-season cold front now well southeast of
the basin, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except south
of 26N and west of 94W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell
across the southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 3-6 ft range
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
will gradually diminish and subside through early Sun. High
pressure will build in and prevail into the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night Sun night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are noted north of 16N and
west of 73W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data indicated fresh to
strong N-NE winds west of the cold front, along with seas in the
5-8 ft range, highest south of the Yucatan Channel.

A surface trough extends across northern Colombia to the
Colombia-Panama border and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Deep convection is noted across northern and western Colombia
producing frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Please
refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local
meteorological offices for more details.

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean
due to a tight pressure gradient between the trough over northern
Colombia and high pressure ridging northeast of the basin.
Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the
basin southeast of the cold front, except variable 5-10 kt winds
across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4-7
ft range southeast of the cold front, except 3 ft or less across
the approach to the Windward Passage.

The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to near the
Honduras-Nicaragua border later today where it will stall and
gradually dissipate through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds
will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of Cuba and across
the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. High
pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through early next week, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos with a
pre-frontal trough north of 24N within 60-75 nm ahead of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60-90
nm ahead of the trough, with rain possible west of the trough to
90 nm west of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are west
of the front along with 7-11 ft seas in NE swell northeast of the
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow is east of the
cold front outside of any convection.

The cold front will stall later in the weekend over the southeast
waters and across Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
building seas are expected in association with the cold front.
High pressure will settle across the region early next week with
more tranquil marine conditions forecast.

Over the central and eastern Atlantic, a ridge of high pressure
extends from 32N53W to 26N50W to 22N35W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are within 120 nm on either side of the ridge
axis. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south of the
ridge axis, along with seas in the 6-8 ft range in old, decaying
northerly swell. East of the ridge axis, a complex, gale-force
low pressure system is located north of the discussion waters.
Several troughs continue to rotate around the system and across
the discussion waters north of 20N and east of 50W. Fresh to
strong winds are occurring north of 27N and east of 48W, with
large seas of 8-15 ft in northerly swell across the same area.
Gale-force winds are forecast to remain north of 32N while the
system lingers through the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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