[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 03 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N17W, and to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W, 04N23W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01S35W, to the
Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 42W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from
47W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward
between 47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes from the 1029 mb high pressure center
that is in south central coastal Louisiana, into the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Near gale-force NE winds are within 75 nm to the west of the
Florida west coast from 28.5N southward. Strong NE winds are
within 120 nm to 135 nm to the west of the Florida west coast
from 29N southward. Other strong NE winds are elsewhere from 85W
eastward. Strong NE winds are within 90 nm to the north of the
coast of Mexico, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
95W eastward.

Fresh to strong winds, and large seas, will diminish gradually
into the weekend, in the wake of the most recent cold front.
High pressure will build into the area, and prevail into the
middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N75W, to Cuba
near 21N77W, to 19N80W in the Caribbean Sea, to NW Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from SW Haiti
to NE Nicaragua.

An upper level trough passes through 20N58W, to 17N68W, to
14N75W, to Costa Rica.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 15N60W 14N70W 12N76W,
to the coast of Panama along 79W.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 08N to 11N, and
from 05N to 07N between 74W and 76W, in Colombia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in Colombia, to the SE
of the surface trough. Please refer to the forecasts and the
weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A cold front stretches from eastern Cuba to central Honduras. By
Saturday morning, this front will reach from the Windward
Passage to the eastern coast of Honduras. The front then will
stall from Hispaniola to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the
Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage
through the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
through early next week, with the highest winds near the
Colombia coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N66W, to 30N67W 26N70W, to the
Bahamas near 23N75W, to Cuba near 21N77W, to 19N80W in the
Caribbean Sea, to NW Honduras. A surface trough is within 60 nm
to 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 23N to 29N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 210 nm to the east of the cold front from Cuba and
Hispaniola northward.

A surface trough is along 31N29W 23N40W 21N51W. A second surface
trough is along 31N32W 28N40W 27N47W. A 1006 mb low pressure
center is near 35N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 20N northward between 27W and 52W.

The current cold front extends from 31N67W, across the SE
Bahamas, to eastern Cuba. This front will reach from Bermuda to
the Turks and Caicos and in the Windward Passage by early
Saturday. This front will stall later in the weekend in the SE
waters and across Hispaniola. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in
association with the cold front. High pressure will settle
across the region early next week, with more tranquil marine
conditions forecast.

$$
mt/jl
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