[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 2100 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N24W to 01N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 15W
and 25W and from 02N to 08N between 32W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate E flow prevails over the western half of the Gulf.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are found in the SE Gulf and Florida
Straits. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in NE swell across the
southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 2-5 ft range for the
northwest half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the
southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside by Sun. High
pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the
middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to Jamaica, with a
stationary front continuing to the coast of NE Honduras. Behind
this front and over the Windward Passage, fresh to strong winds
prevail. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the NW Caribbean behind
the front.

Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen just offshore near the Panama/Colombia border,
mainly south of 11N between 76W-79W. Fresh trades are occurring
over the south central Caribbean, with moderate winds prevailing
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front is expected to completely stall
tonight and gradually dissipate through the remainder of the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas west of the front
will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
Windward Passage through early next week. High pressure in the
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through early next week, with the highest winds
near the Colombia coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure noted near 33N35W of 996 mb has moved far enough N of
the basin for gale conditions to end. However, strong NW winds
will prevail tonight and seas of 8-12 ft will continue north of
28N and east of 45W through Sunday.

A cold front extends from 32N60W to 25N66W through the Turks and
Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. A pre-frontal surface
trough is located about 75 nm ahead of the front, north of 21N.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are within 180 nm
southeast of the cold front, mainly north of 21N and east of 68W.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail across a wide area behind the
front. A NNW-SSE oriented surface ridge axis extends through a
1022 mb high pressure near 30N53W to near 23N47W. Light to gentle
winds are within a few hundred nm of this ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will slowly move
eastward over the southeast waters and across Hispaniola. Behind
the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas
are expected through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will continue near
the Windward Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle
across the region early next week with more tranquil marine
conditions forecast.

$$
KONARIK
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