[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 29.0N 63.4W at 20/2100 UTC or
210 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is 90 nm in the northern semicircle, while
scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm from the
center. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda
tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday
morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late
Tuesday or Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.7N 94.0W at 20/2100 UTC
or 100 nm SSE of Galveston Texas moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 100 nm of the center in the northern
semicircle. Also, to the east, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 24N-30N between 86W-91W. Peak seas are currently 18
ft. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to
move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move
inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of
southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Wilfred is centered near 15.9N 45.8W at
20/2100 UTC or 1260 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas range
between 12 to 14 ft within 60 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16N-22N between 38W-47W.
Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the
west-northwestward for the next couple days until dissipation.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south
of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity
to the northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system
is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to
begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop
tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two.
For more information about marine hazards associated with this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. This
system has a medium chance of development within the next 48
hours.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to a 1012 mb low near
27N81W then continues across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient in the area will induce gale force winds N of
30N and W of front to 73W by 06Z tonight. These conditions will
continue in the same area through the next day. Seas are
currently ranging between 12-18 ft in this area and are forecast
to build to 17-20 ft in the next 24 hours. Please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from
10N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 14N-20N between 16W-24W. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds noted west side of the wave north of 14N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 15N22W to 12N28W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 14N-24N between 17W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from 27N82W to 28N90W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front. Behind the front, strong NE
winds are noted in scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail south of the front and over the remainder of the basin,
except N of 25N and W of 90W due to T.S. Beta.

In addition to T.S. Beta over the NW Gulf, the aforementioned
front will move across the southeast Gulf through Mon. Fresh to
strong NE winds and buildings seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from 16N64W
to 12N68W with scattered showers. To the west, a 1009 mb surface
low is centered along the monsoon trough near 11N73W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 70W-84W. Large,
long period northerly swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in
the Atlantic is penetrating the Atlantic passages from the Mona
Passage through the Leeward Islands, but is also active just
outside of the Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge
that is normally north of the region has been displaced by the
tropical cyclone activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and
slight seas elsewhere across the basin.

Looking ahead, the swell from Hurricane Teddy will continue to
impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the Mona Passage
through Mon, but should gradually ease in the Windward Island
Passages. This may be short lived as a new round of large, long-
period northerly swell is expected by mid-week. Mariners are
advised to check local marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the sections above for details on Hurricane Teddy,
Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, the
Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic, and the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted along the stationary front
that extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to a 1012 mb low
near 27N81W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N70W to 27N76W
with no significant convection at this time. Light to gentle
winds are noted south of these boundaries. To the east, another
surface trough is analyzed from 20N52W to 17N49W with no
convection. A 1017 mb surface high is centered near 28N39W.
Outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to fresh trade
winds persist across remainder of the basin. 8 to 10 ft seas
primarily in mixed swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic
south of 32N due to the continuous tropical cyclone activity
over the past several days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.

Teddy will move north of the area, while Wilfred will gradually
dissipate through the early part of the week. The frontal system
mentioned above will move SE across the Florida Peninsula and
the west Atlantic while weakening, then stall Tue from near
Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Long period swell generated by
both Hurricane Teddy and this front will impact the waters
through mid-week.

$$
ERA
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