[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 27.2N
93.0W at 20/1500 UTC or 180 NM SE of Galveston, Texas moving WNW
at 3 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 100 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Also,
further east, scattered moderate convection is noted north of
24N-29N between 86W-90W. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of
Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night, and
remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy near 28.3N 62.8W 964 mb at 20/1500 UTC OR 300 nm
SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt.
Peak seas are 42 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is 90 nm in the northern semicircle. Teddy will change
little in intensity as it moves to 53.0N 53.0W early Thu. On the
forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the
center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy
should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.


Tropical Depression Wilfred near 15.7N 44.2W 1008 mb at 20/1500
UTC or 1340 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 17 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted 80 nm in the northern semicircle. On the
forecast, Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading
toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until
dissipation. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered south of the Azores
near 35N29W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The low is
drifting southward. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward
for the next day or so and then begin moving eastward in a couple
of days. There is a medium chance the cyclone could reacquire
tropical or subtropical characteristics early this week. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 31N69W to a 1012 mb low near 27N80W to
27N83W. This low is producing an area of thunderstorms near the
central Florida coast from 27N-29N. Significant development of
this low is not anticipated. This weak low pressure off the FL
coast and a cold front moving SE through the waters will lead to
Gale conditions N of 28N through tonight. Long period swell
generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact
the waters into mid-week. Seas are currently 12-18 ft in this
area and are forecast to build to 17-20 ft in the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 21W
from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 14N-20N between 16W-24W.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds noted west side of the wave
north of 14N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 15N22W to 12N28W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 14N-18N and well south of the monsoon trough along
the west coast of Africa from 06N-11N between 14W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to 27N80W, then
becomes stationary to 27W83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is north of the front from 27N-29N between 87W-89W.
Behind the front, strong NE winds are occurring.  Scattered
moderate showers are noted south of 21N in the Bay of Campeche
between 90W-95W.

In addition to Tropical Storm Beta over the NW Gulf, the
aforementioned front will move across the eastern half of the
Gulf into Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and buildings seas will
Follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
NW Venezuela to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted near
the Leeward Islands and scattered thunderstorms in the southern
portion of the trough. Fairly dry conditions are noted elsewhere
except for some showers seen near the coastal areas of Venezuela
and Colombia. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted near 11N73W with
the monsoon trough extending westward across Panama and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of
the low and in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Large, long period
northerly swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic
is penetrating the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage through
the Leeward Islands, but is also active just outside of the
Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is normally
north of the region has been displaced by the tropical cyclone
activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and slight seas elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the
Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the
Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round
of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid-week.
Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more
information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
the gales east of northern Florida, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical
Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Scattered moderate convection is noted along the stationary front
mentioned above in the Special Features section, mainly north of
27N and west of 72W. To the SE of that front, a weakening surface
trough extends from 29N69W to 26N77W in the northern Bahamas.
Scattered showers and gentle winds are near this boundary. Gentle
winds generally prevail south of the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section and west of 70W and fresh to strong
north of 29N west of 80W.

Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone activity over the past several
days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.


Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The
cold front mentioned in the Special Features section above will
move SE across the Florida Peninsula and the west Atlantic while
weakening, then stall Tue from near Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Behind the front, gale conditions are expected N of 28N
through tonight. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane
Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into mid-week.

$$
Torres
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