[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 27.0N
92.7W at 20/0900 UTC or 180 nm SE of Galveston Texas moving WNW at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are
currently 24 ft. Isolated moderate to strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. A slow WNW motion
is expected through Mon night before Beta should stall or begin
to turn NNW then NNE. The track brings Beta to the Texas coast
late Mon or Mon night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas
coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 28.0N 62.0W at 20/0900 UTC or
300 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently 55 ft. Scattered
to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm of the center, except 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Teddy is
expected to turn toward the north tonight followed by a faster
northward motion later on Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Teddy will pass just east of Bermuda Monday morning. A
weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Teddy has a very
large wind field. Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 28.0N 62.0W at 20/0900 UTC or
300 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm of the
center, but there is no convection in the SW quadrant. Wilfred
will continue moving toward the WNW or W for the next couple of
days until it dissipates by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered southwest of the
Azores near 35N29W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. The low is
drifting southward. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward
for the next day or so and then begin moving eastward in a couple
of days. There is a medium chance the cyclone could reacquire
tropical or subtropical characteristics early this week. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N70W to a 1012 mb low near 29N79W to
28N81W. To the north of the low and behind the cold front N and NE
gales will prevail through early Mon morning. This low is
producing a small area of thunderstorms near the central Florida
coast, and will likely move inland later today. Significant
development of this low is not anticipated. Seas are currently
12-18 ft in this area and are forecast to build to 15-22 ft by
tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along
23W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen from 16N-20N between 18W-24W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 13N28W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen well south of the monsoon trough along the west coast of
Africa from 06N-11N between 12W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to 27N84W, then
becomes stationary to 27W88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is near the west part of the stationary front from 27N-
29N between 87W-89W. Behind the front, strong NE winds are
occurring. Surface troughing over the Bay of Campeche is leading
to scattered moderate showers.

In addition to Tropical Storm Beta over the NW Gulf, the
aforementioned front will move through the northeast Gulf
into Mon, bringing strong NE winds through early week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
NW Venezuela to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted near
the eastern portion of this trough over the Leeward Islands.
Fairly dry conditions are noted elsewhere except for some showers
seen near the south coast of Cuba. Large, long period northerly
swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic is
penetrating into the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage
through the Leeward Islands, but is also active just outside of
the Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is
normally north of the region has been displaced by the tropical
cyclone activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and slight seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the
Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the
Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round
of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid week.
Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more
information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
the gales east of northern Florida, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical
Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along
the front mentioned above in the Special Features section,
mainly north of 28N and west of 77W. To the SE of that front,
a weakening surface trough extends from 32N68W to 25N77W. Isolated
showers and gentle winds are near this boundary. Gentle winds
generally prevail south of the cold front mentioned in the
Special Features section and west of 70W.

Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone activity over the past
several days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.

Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The
cold front mentioned in the Special Features section above will
move SE across the Florida Peninsula and the west Atlantic while
weakening, then stall Tue from near Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Behind the front, gale conditions are expected N of 28N
through tonight. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane
Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into mid week.

$$
KONARIK
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