[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 26.8N
92.2W at 20/0300 UTC, or 205 nm SE of Galveston TX moving NNE at
2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are
currently 23 ft. Isolated moderate to strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. A slow WNW
motion is expected today, followed by a slow NW to N motion late
Mon and Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move
toward the coast of Texas and potentially move inland late Mon
or early Tue. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Major Hurricane Teddy is centered near 27.3N 61.2W at 20/0300 UTC
or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are currently 54 ft. Scattered
to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm of the center, except 120 nm in the NW quad. Teddy is expected
to turn toward the north tonight followed by a faster northward
motion later on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Teddy will pass just east of Bermuda Monday morning. A weakening
trend is expected to begin tonight. Teddy has a very large wind
field. Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 14.5N 40.5W at 20/0300
UTC or 960 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
14 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
270 nm of the center, but there is no convection in the SW
quadrant. Wilfred will continue moving toward the WNW or W for
the next couple of days until it dissipates on Tuesday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered southwest of the
Azores near 35N29N with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The
low is drifting southward. The cyclone is forecast to
continue southward for the next day or so and then begin
moving eastward in a couple of days. There is a medium chance
the cyclone could reacquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics early this week. For more information about
marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N72W to a 1012 mb low near 29N79W
to Melbourne Florida to Tampa Bay. A recent ASCAT pass shows
NE winds of 30 to 35 kt north of the low and north of the
front, between 76W and the coast of NE Florida. Gales in
this area should persist through late tonight or early Mon
morning. Seas are currently 12-16 ft in this area and are
forecast to build to 15-20 ft by tonight. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along
20/21W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 16N-20N
between 16W-22W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 13N28W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen well south of the monsoon trough along the west coast of
Africa from 06N-11N between 12W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

As of 20/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Tampa Bay to
28N84W and continues as a stationary front to 28N89W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the west
part of the stationary front from 27N-29N between 87W-89W.
A recent ASCAT pass shows near gale E winds to the north of
the front over the NE Gulf. Gale force winds are west of
87.5W north of the front, and can be attributed to Beta and
the front. Surface troughing over the Bay of Campeche is
leading to scattered moderate showers.

In addition to Tropical Storm Beta over the NW Gulf, the
aforementioned front will move through the northeast Gulf
into Mon, bringing strong NE winds through early week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
NW Venezuela to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted near
the eastern portion of this trough over the Leeward Islands.
Fairly dry conditions are noted elsewhere except for some showers
seen near the south coast of Cuba. Large, long period northerly
swell originating from Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic is
penetrating into the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage
through the Leeward Islands, but is also active just outside of
the Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is
normally north of the region has been displaced by the tropical
cyclone activity, leaving gentle E to SE winds and slight seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the passages from the Leeward Islands to the
Mona Passage through Mon, but should gradually ease in the
Windward Island Passages. This may be short lived as a new round
of large, long-period northerly swell is expected by mid week.
This northerly swell will impact much of the eastern Caribbean by
mid week. Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts
for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
the gales east of northern Florida, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical
Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along
the front mentioned above in the Special Features section,
mainly north of 28N and west of 77W. To the SE of that front,
a dissipating cold front extends from 32N70W to 29N75W. A
surface trough continues from 29N75W to 26N78W. Isolated
showers and gentle winds are near this boundary. Gentle winds
generally prevail south of the front mentioned in the Special
Features section and west of 70W.

Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone activity over the past
several
days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy.

Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week.
Swell generated by Teddy will continue to impact all area waters
into Mon. The cold front mentioned in the Special Features
section above will move SE across the Florida Peninsula and the
west Atlantic while weakening, then stall Tue from near Bermuda
to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near gale force NE
winds are anticipated across a broad area of Atlantic waters N
of 25N into Mon night, with an area of gale force winds through
late tonight or early Mon. This will bring a new round of
large, long-period northerly swell to the waters west of 50W
through mid week.

$$
Hagen
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