[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.6N 92.4W at 19/2100 UTC
or 280 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 23 ft.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center. An outer band of scattered moderate convection is also
noted over the north central Gulf. A slow WNW motion is expected
to begin later this evening toward the Texas coast, and continue
through late Monday. Slow strengthening is forecast through late
Monday to near hurricane strength. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml
and the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Major Hurricane Teddy is centered near 26.7N 60.2W at 19/2100
UTC or 410 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently 55 ft. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 210 nm of the
center. Teddy is expected to continue moving NW through tonight.
A turn toward the north or north- northeast is expected on
Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On
the forecast track, the center of Teddy will pass just east of
the island early Monday. Some slow weakening is expected over the
next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's
maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Large swells
generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml or more
details.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 14.0N 39.2W at 19/2100
UTC or 890 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
14 ft. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are within
210 nm in the N quadrant. Wilfred will continue moving toward
the west- northwest for the next few days. Little change in
intensity is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual
weakening on Monday. Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low
by Monday night and dissipate by Mon night. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered southwest of the
Azores near 36N30N with a central pressure of 1008 mb. The
cyclone is moving southward a few
hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to
continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores.
There is a moderate chance the cyclone could subsequently
develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next
week while it moves little. For more information about marine
hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
21N16W to 14N25W. No significant convection is observed near the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

The stationary front extends from southwest Florida near Fort
Myers across the southeast Gulf to 27N86W. No significant
convection is associated with this front. A reinforcing front
is over north Florida along 29N and extends across the Florida
Big Bend area of the northeast Gulf to near Apalachicola
Florida. No convection is noted near this boundary.

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated near gale
force NW winds funneling along coast of Veracruz in the
southwest Gulf, squeezed between Beta to the north and the high
coastal terrain. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are
noted over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of Beta in the
northwest Gulf, fresh to strong NE winds will follow the
reinforcing front moving southward over the eastern Gulf through
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from
near Bonaire to the Leeward Islands. A few showers are noted east
of this trough over the eastern Caribbean, with fairly dry
conditions elsewhere. Large, long period northerly swell
originating with Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic is penetrating
into the Atlantic passages from the Mona Passage through the
Leeward Islands, but is also active is just outside of the
Windward Island passages. The subtropical ridge that is normally
north of the region has been displaced by the tropical cyclone
activity, leaving relatively modest E to SE winds and slight seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic swell will continue to impact the
passages from the Leeward Islands to the Mona Passage through Mon,
but should gradually ease in the Windward Island Passages. This
may be short lived as a new round of large, long-period
northerly swell is expected by mid week. This northerly swell
will impact much of the eastern Caribbean by mid week. Mariners
are advised to check local marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Paulette.

In the western Atlantic off the coast of northeast Florida, a
mostly stationary front reaches from 32N70W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 29N76W to south Florida near West Palm Beach. A
reinforcing front is analyzed form 32N73W to 29N81W. No
significant convection is noted along these boundaries. An
earlier scatterometer pass along with region buoy observations
indicated strong NE winds are following the reinforcing front.
Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere west of 65W.
Farther east outside of tropical cyclones, generally moderate to
fresh trade winds persist. 8 to 10 ft seas primarily in mixed
swell cover much of the open northern Atlantic south of 32N due
to the continuous tropical cyclone active over the past several
days, but mostly from Hurricane Teddy. Large seas to 12 ft follow
the reinforcing front off northeast Florida as well.

Teddy will move north of the area, and Wilfred will gradually
dissipate west of 50W through the early part of the week. The
reinforcing front will move southeast across the Florida
Peninsula and the western Atlantic while weakening, then stall
early next week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind
the front, near gale force winds NE are anticipated across a
broad area of Atlantic waters N of 25N through Mon, bringing a
new round of large, long-period northerly swell to the waters
west of 50W through mid week.


$$
Christensen
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