[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.6N 94.5W at 21/0300 UTC
or 105 nm S of Galveston Texas moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered
light to isolated moderate showers are within 180 nm of the
center in the western semicircle. Peak seas are currently 23 ft.
The WNW motion will continue today. A decrease in forward speed
and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected tonight
and Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will likely
move inland along the coast of central Texas tonight, and remain
close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Little
change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 29.4N 63.6W at 21/0300 UTC or
185 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NNW at 5 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong
convection extends outward from the center 180 nm in the east
semicircle, 90 nm SW quad and 150 nm NW quad. On the forecast
track, the center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda later
this morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia
late Tue or Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Wilfred has degenerated into a trough. The
remnants of Wilfred are located near 15.9N 47.4W at 21/0300 UTC
with max winds near 30 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm of the center in the east semicircle and 90 nm
west semicircle. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred nm south
of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower
activity. This system is drifting S and is expected to begin
moving eastward on Monday. The cyclone has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/0300 UTC, a cold front
extends from 31N70W to 27N76W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida. A
recent ASCAT pass from Sunday evening shows NE winds of 30-35
kt north of 27.5N between 74W and the coasts of Florida and
Georgia. Seas are 17 to 23 feet in this area. The gales south
of 31N are forecast to end later this morning by 1200 UTC.
However, winds to 30 kt and very rough seas will persist into
tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N24W
to 02N27W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is from 14N-21N between 21W-25W. This convection is
associated with a 1012 mb low along the monsoon trough near
17N22W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a 1012 mb low in the Cabo Verde Islands near
17N22W to 13N29W to 13N33W. The ITCZ is from 13N33W to
15N41W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 36W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from Naples Florida to 28N91W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the front. Near gale
E winds are noted north of the front over the NE Gulf in
the latest ASCAT data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south
of the front over the SE Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N.
Isolated moderate convection is seen over portions of the
Bay of Campeche.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S
across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong
NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean near
the S coast of Cuba, and the far southern Caribbean. Isolated
showers and tstorms are also possible today over the Leeward
Islands due to the presence of a moisture tail emanating from
Teddy, which shows up nicely in TPW imagery. Somewhat drier air
is seen over the central Caribbean, where upper-level
anticyclonic flow prevails. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle
winds across the basin, with moderate winds in the southern
Caribbean near the coast of South America.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy
will continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean
through today between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands.
Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages
for the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check
local marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west
Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the west
Atlantic cold front from 25N-29N between 73W and Florida. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 28N70W to 26N76W with
scattered showers and tstorms. Light to gentle winds are noted
south of 26N and west of 74W across the Old Bahama Channel,
as well as the waters north of Hispaniola. To the east, a
1018 mb high is near 28N38W.

Hurricane Teddy will move to near 35N63W this evening, and
become extratropical near 41N64W Tue evening. The cold front
from 31N70W to Ft. Lauderdale Florida will lead to a
continuation of Gale conditions N of 28N through this morning.
Long period swell generated by both Hurricane Teddy and
this cold front will impact the waters across the western
Atlantic through mid week.

$$
Hagen
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