[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts
to 110 kt. Teddy will move NW and intensify through Fri. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center.
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
14N to 22N between 46W and 56W. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/ Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 21.9N 36.7W 1008 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Vicky will weaken to a tropical depression this
afternoon, and become a remnant low on Fri. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm NE of center. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A 1007 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is centered near 22N95W. Convective activity has continued to
increase and become better organized this morning, and upper-
level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development.
There is a high probability a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before
moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday.
Numerous scattered to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
low. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10
to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 24W and 33W. The low is forecast to
move west northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the
weekend. The potential for tropical cyclone formation is medium.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough
and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the recent activity of
tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Sally continues to move inland in the SE U.S.
and is located near 31.8N 85.7W 1000 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NE at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.

A 1007 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is centered near 22N95W. There is a high probability a tropical
depression or a tropical storm could form later today. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 24N
between 92W and 87W. A stationary front is in the coastal plains
of Texas from the upper Texas Gulf coast continuing to the Deep
South of Texas, with scattered showers noted along the front.

A developing area of low pressure over the SW Gulf will meander
over the southern Gulf during the next several days, with high
potential to become a tropical depression in the next day or two.
A weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat, followed by
fresh to strong east to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola to the
northern coast of Colombia. Isolated showers are noted from 11N
to 19N west of 75W. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern
Pacific Ocean across northern Costa Rica to near 12N79W.

Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move
to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N
56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat
afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon. A
relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
trades through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing over the
south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swell that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. The
swell will spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend.
Large swell can cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

Low level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea islands northward for about 500
nm. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 16N to 25N between
60W and 65W. A stationary front is along 31N from 52W westward.
An upper level trough extends from just to the east of Bermuda to
Hispaniola. Isolated showers are noted along the frontal boundary.

Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move
to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N
56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat
afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon.
Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A
cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, then become
nearly stationary on Sun. Strong NE winds are expected north of
the front, with building seas.

$$
Mundell
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