[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Sally, at 17/0300 UTC, is near
31.9N 86.1W.  SALLY is about 30 nm/50 km to the SSE of
Montgomery in Alabama. SALLY is moving NE, or 045 degrees, 8
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate and widely
scattered strong is in Alabama, Georiga, and South Carolina.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Hurricane Teddy, at 17/0300 UTC, is near 17.8N
51.5W. TEDDY is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 165 nm of
the center in the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Vicky, at 17/0300 UTC, is near
21.6N 35.8W. VICKY is moving W, or 275 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 kt.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A 1008 mb low pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 21N94W. The low pressure center has a medium chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Upper level winds are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form late this week or during the weekend. The low
pressure center is forecast to meander in the southern Gulf of
Mexico for the next several days. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. A stationary front is in the coastal plains of Texas,
from the upper Texas Gulf coast, continuing to the Deep South of
Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate are to the northwest of the line that extends
from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico, about 225 nm to the
WNW of the 1008 mb low pressure center. Please, read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more
details.

A tropical wave is along 24W/26W, from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 10.5N. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 800 nm on
either side of the tropical wave from 16N southward.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days. It is possible that a
tropical depression may form before upper level winds become
less favorable during the weekend. This system is forecast to
move west northwestward 10 to 15 mph during the next several
days. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough
and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current
tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 21N94W. The low pressure center has a medium chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. A stationary front is in the
coastal plains of Texas, from the upper Texas Gulf coast,
continuing to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are to the
northwest of the line that extends from SE Louisiana to the
coast of Mexico, about 225 nm to the WNW of the 1008 mb low
pressure center.

The center of Tropical Storm Sally is in southeastern Alabama.
SALLY continues to move NE 6 kt, from tonight into Thursday.
Sally will weaken to a tropical depression late tonight.
An area of low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will meander in
the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, with
the potential to become a tropical depression late this week. A
weak front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday. The front will be followed by fresh northeast winds.
Swells from Sally in most of the eastern and central sections of
the Gulf of Mexico will subside slowly through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola to the
northern coast of Colombia.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from
70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N, from 73W in northern
Colombia to 80W. The monsoon trough curves southwestward to 10N,
and then it continues westward across Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 13N from 70W
westward.

Hurricane Teddy is near 17.8N 51.5W 976 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy
will move northwest to 18.9N 52.6W Thu morning, and near
21.8N 55.6W by Fri morning. Swell generated from Teddy will
impact the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas this weekend as it
continues on a northwest track. This large northeast swell will
impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through early next week.
Teddy is forecast to be near 27.0N 61.1W by Sat evening. Little
change in intensity is expected as it moves near 30.0N 64.0W
late Sun. A strong front will move across the northwest forecast
waters from Saturday through Sunday, followed by strong
northeast winds. A relatively weak pressure pattern, elsewhere,
will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early next
week, with fresh trades pulsing in the south central Caribbean
Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swells that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. The
large swells should spread westward, to the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States
of America by the weekend. It is likely for these swells to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office.

Surface to low level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean, from the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea
islands northward for at least 500 nm. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 16N to 25N between 60W and 65W

A cold front/stationary front is along 31N/33N from 60W
westward. An upper level trough extends from just to the east of
Bermuda to Hispaniola. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Hurricane Teddy is near 17.8N 51.5W 976 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy
will move northwest to 18.9N 52.6W Thu morning, and near
21.8N 55.6W by Fri morning. Swell generated from Teddy will
impact the Bahamas this weekend as Teddy continues on a
northwest track. Teddy is forecast to be near 25.3N 59.1W Sat
morning, and 27.0N 61.1W Sat evening. Little change in intensity
is expected as it moves to near 30.0N 64.0W late Sun. A strong
front will move across the northwest forecast waters, from
Saturday through Sunday, followed by strong northeast winds.
Large northeast swell will impact the tropical N
Atlantic waters through early next week.

$$
mt
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