[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Sally at 16/2100 UTC is
centered near 31.2N 86.8W, or 48 nm NNE of Pensacola, Florida
and 74 nm W of Dolphin, Alabama, moving NE at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 16 ft with 12 ft
seas extending 120 nm in the SE quadrant and 75 nm in the SW
quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends 100 nm
in the eastern semicircle. Sally will begin moving northeastward
at a slightly faster forward speed tonight through Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move
across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on
Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Additional
weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland
tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression
tonight or Thursday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Hurricane Teddy at 16/2100 UTC is near 17.5N 50.8W,
or 617 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 11 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 973 mb. Peak seas are currently 30 ft and the 12 ft
seas extend 300 nm in the NW and SE quadrants and 330 nm in the
NE quadrant and 270 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 170 nm of the W semicircle and 150
nm in the E semicircle. Teddy will continue to move northwest for
the next few days. Additional strengthening is expected over the
next day or so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane
during that time. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Vicky at 16/2100 UTC is near 21.5N
35.7W, or 743 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Peak seas are currently 15 ft with
the 12 ft seas extending 120 nm in the N semicircle, 30 nm in the
SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection extends 180 nm in the NE quadrant. Vicky is expected
to continue a westward motion through late Thursday. A west-
southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue
through dissipation. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky
is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to
a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at :
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave has an axis along 25W south of 15N, and is moving
westward at 10 knots. A 1010 mb low is along the tropical wave
near 10N25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 09N-13N between 25W- 28W. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while the
system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1009 mb low in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W will gradually continue
to become better organized. Upper- level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico
for the next several days. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please read the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains over inland Africa. The monsoon
trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the
current tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of convection associated with the low in the SW Gulf and
convection from T.S. Sally, conditions remain quiet for the rest
of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are in the SE Gulf, light
to gentle winds in the NW Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds W of
the low in the SW Gulf. Seas 3-6 ft.

Recently downgrade Tropical Storm Sally will continue inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 31.9N 86.0W late tonight,
then reach 33.2N 84.0W Thu afternoon and weaken to a remnant low
near 34.2N 81.4W late Thu night and dissipate Fri afternoon.
Elsewhere, an area of low pressure over the SW Gulf will meander
over the southern Gulf during the next several days, with
potential to become a tropical cyclone. A weak front will move
into the northern Gulf on Sat followed by fresh northeast winds.
Swells from Sally over most of the eastern and central Gulf will
slowly subside through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is giving way to scattered
moderate convection in the central Caribbean from 13N-19N between
76W-81W. Isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon
trough are along the coasts of Colombia and Panama. Light to
gentle trades are seen across the basin. Seas 3-6 ft.

A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades through early next week, with fresh trades
pulsing over the south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, which are the remnants of Rene, is over the
central Atlantic from 30N53W to 26N55W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Outside of the
tropical systems, high pressure ridging extends across the basin
with light to gentle winds. Seas 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic
and 5-7 ft in the central Atlantic.

Hurricane Teddy will move to near 18.6N 52.0W late tonight with
maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, and to strengthen to
a major hurricane as it moves to near 20.0N 53.4W Thu afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 21.5N
54.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts
130 kt and to near 23.0N 56.3W Fri afternoon. Teddy is forecast
to begin to weaken as it reaches near 24.8N 58.0W late Fri night
with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 26.5N
60.2W Sat afternoon, to near 29.5N 63.6W Sun afternoon with
maximum sustained 90 kt gusts 110 kt and to north of the area
near 33.3N 64.6W Mon afternoon.

A strong cold front will move over the northwest forecast waters
Sat through Sun followed by strong northeast winds. Large northeast
swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week.

$$
AReinhart
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