[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 19.3N 53.0W at 17/1500 UTC or
530 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
has risen to 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Some additional
strengthening is possible through tonight. A slow weakening trend
is expected to begin over the weekend. The hurricane is expected
to continue the same motion for the next few days. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is located within 180 NM of the
center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Vicky is centered near 21.4N 38.2W at
17/1500 UTC or 870 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed has dropped to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low later today. A turn
toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion
should continue through Friday. Scattered showers are located
within 60 NM of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

A 1005 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is centered near 22N96W. Thunderstorm activity has continued to
increase and become better organized this morning with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection occurring from 20N-25N
between 92W-98W. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more
conducive for development and, if this recent development trend
continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form
later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly
northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. Please read
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10
to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 24W and 33W. The low is forecast to
move west northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several
days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the
weekend. The potential for tropical cyclone formation is medium.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough
and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the recent activity of
tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Sally continues to move inland in the SE U.S.
and is located near 31.8N 85.7W 1000 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NE at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.

A 1007 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is centered near 22N95W. There is a high probability a tropical
depression or a tropical storm could form later today. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 24N
between 92W and 87W. A stationary front is in the coastal plains
of Texas from the upper Texas Gulf coast continuing to the Deep
South of Texas, with scattered showers noted along the front.

A developing area of low pressure over the SW Gulf will meander
over the southern Gulf during the next several days, with high
potential to become a tropical depression in the next day or two.
A weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat, followed by
fresh to strong east to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola to the
northern coast of Colombia. Isolated showers are noted from 11N
to 19N west of 75W. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern
Pacific Ocean across northern Costa Rica to near 12N79W.

Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move
to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N
56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat
afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon. A
relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
trades through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing over the
south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swell that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. The
swell will spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend.
Large swell can cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

Low level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea islands northward for about 500
nm. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 16N to 25N between
60W and 65W. A stationary front is along 31N from 52W westward.
An upper level trough extends from just to the east of Bermuda to
Hispaniola. Isolated showers are noted along the frontal boundary.

Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move
to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N
56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat
afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon.
Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A
cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, then become
nearly stationary on Sun. Strong NE winds are expected north of
the front, with building seas.

$$
Landsea
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