[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 19.2N 45.6W at 09/0900
UTC or 1250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is sheared wtih
numerous moderate and scattered strong convection noted within
180 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 19N-24N between 40W-47W.
Paulette is moving toward the W and a slightly faster motion
toward the W-NW is expected later today, followed by a temporary
westward motion on Thu. A turn back toward the W-NW is expected on
Fri. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening anticipated on Thu and Fri.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 17.4N 30.5W at 09/0900
UTC or 380 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the W semicircle and
within 60 nm in the E semicircle. The depression is moving
toward the W-NW and this general motion is expected for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn to the NW. Satellite imagery
shows that the system is becoming better organized, and Rene is
expected to regain tropical storm strength later today and become
a hurricane in a couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is inland over Africa along 07W/08W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area is along the wave near
12N. Scattered moderate convection is noted well out ahead of the
wave including within 240 nm of the W coast of Africa from 05N-
14N. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This area has a low
probability of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave axis is along 78W from southern Cuba to across
Jamaica to near the Panama/Colombia border, moving W at 15-20 kt.
No significant convection is noted with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

No monsoon trough is noted in the eastern and central Atlantic due
to the circulations of Paulette and Rene. The ITCZ extends from
12N50W to just S of Barbados near 13N60W. The eastern Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
11N73W to near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W and
beyond. Scattered modreate convection is noted from 10N-33W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm E-SE of a line from 19N44W to 14N46W to 12N50W, and from
07N-10N between 57W-61W. Similar convection is noted over the SW
Caribbean Sea and northern Colombia from 10N-12N between 72W-77W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida SW to just N
of the Yucatan Channel near 24N86W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted SE of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure centered NE of
the basin extends into the area W of the trough. Gentle to
moderate E-SE flow is noted across the basin, along with seas of 3
ft or less, except 3-4 ft off the Texas coast where winds are the
strongest.

The trough will drift W across the basin through the week,
dissipating by the weekend with high pressure rebuilding from NE
of the area in the wake. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are
anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette.

Other than the tropical wave approaching the western Caribbean as
is described above, no significant surface features are in the
basin. Weak and broad high pressure remains N-NE of the basin
maintaining gentle to moderate E-SE flow. Seas are 3 ft or less W
of 70W, and 2-4 ft E of 70W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted across western Cuba N of 20N between
82W-85W due to a mid to upper leve low. Isolated convection is
noted along and off the SW coast of Haiti, SE of the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic, and across the Caribbean coastal
waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

The tropical wave will move W through the western Caribbean for
the remainder of the week, while the weak high pressure remains
N-NE of the basin. Large swells associated with Paulette may
spread through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene.

A 1012 mb low is analyzed well NE of the Bahamas near 30.5N73W
along a N to S trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
conevction is noted N of 22N between 67W-73W with additional
isolated convection noted from 20N-30N between 60W-67W under an
area of upper level diffluence. A stationary front is located
about 40-60 nm offshore of the Carolinas, with a trailing trough
continuing SW across Daytona Beach Florida to Tampa Bay Florida.
Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these features. Mainly
gentle to moderate SE-S flow dominates the SW N Atlantic basin,
except light and variable winds SW of the low pressure area. Seas
are 3 ft or less SW-W of the Bahamas, and 3-6 ft elsewhere in
mixed easterly swell.

The low and trough will move slowly W-NW toward the coasts of
South and North Carolina, and gradual development of the low is
possible during the next 2-3 days. The stationary front off the
Carolinas will linger, dissipating by the end of the week. The
surface trough extending SW of the front will drift W across the
Florida Peninsula through mid-week. Large swells associated with
Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end
of the week through the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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