[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 09/0300 UTC, is near
19.2N 45.0W. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 305 degrees, 08 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm of
the center in the N quadrant, within 240 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant. Isolated to widely scattered and isolated strong is
from 10N to 15N between 40W and 52W. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Rene, at 09/0300 UTC, is near
17.0N 29.3W. RENE is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 14 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 150 nm of the center
in the W quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is inland in Africa. A 1008 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 12N. The wave is moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 250 nm of the low pressure center in
the NW quadrant. Gradual development is expected, once the
system moves over water. It is likely that a tropical depression
may form late this week or during the weekend, while the system
moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
for the latest updates.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from SE Cuba
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the waters that are
between 70W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland, in Mexico. The ITCZ is along
11N/12N, between 48W and 60W. Precipitation: passes through the
coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 11N30W, through
the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 11N39W, to 09N51W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 04N to 13N from 40W eastward, and from
06N to 18N from 25W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the 30N80W, toward Tampa in
Florida, to the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the inland
areas of Florida from 30N southward, in the Gulf of Mexico
between Florida and the surface trough, and inland areas of
Cuba. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

A surface trough just offshore of the Florida Gulf coast will
drift W through the week. High pressure that is to the N-NE of
the area will extend across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect fairly
tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend,
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 75 nm to the
south of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea between the eastern Caribbean Sea islands and the
76W/77W tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from the 76W/77W tropical wave eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is halfway between NW
Cuba and the eastern sections of Honduras. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of NW
Cuba, within 90 nm of the coast. Isolated moderate covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea from the 76W/77W tropical wave
westward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N, between 73W in Colombia and
beyond the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea
from 15N southward from 70W westward.

Broad surface low pressure covers parts of Central America.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong in clusters covers Central America between 83W
at the coast of Nicaragua and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from SE Cuba
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the waters that are between 70W and 80W.

Tropical Storm Paulette near 19.2N 45.0W 997 mb at  11 PM EDT
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Paulette will move to 19.8N 46.2W Wed morning, 20.2N 48.1W Wed
evening, 20.6N 50.0W Thu morning, 20.8N 51.7W Thu evening, 21.1N
52.9W Fri morning, and 21.9N 53.8W Fri evening. Paulette will
change little in intensity as it moves to 24.4N 55.7W ate Sat,
and 27.5N 59.0W late Sun. Large swells associated with Paulette
may spread through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into
the weekend. A tropical wave, approaching Jamaica extending
southward to western Colombia, will move W through the central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday, then across the western
Caribbean Sea late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 30N71W. Gradual
development of the low pressure center is possible during the
next two or three days. It is possible that a tropical
depression may develop, while the low pressure center continues
to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coasts of South and
North Carolina. Anyone with interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this low pressure center. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is
within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please, read the
North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a NW-to-SE oriented
inverted trough, is bringing upper level cyclonic wind flow to
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 66W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Atlantic Ocean,
elsewhere, from 20N northward from 58W westward.

Tropical Storm Paulette near 19.2N 45.0W 997 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Paulette will move to 19.8N 46.2W Wed morning, 20.2N 48.1W Wed
evening, 20.6N 50.0W Thu morning, 20.8N 51.7W Thu evening, 21.1N
52.9W Fri morning, and 21.9N 53.8W Fri evening. Paulette will
change little in intensity as it moves to 24.4N 55.7W late Sat,
and 27.5N 59.0W late Sun. Large swells associated with Paulette
may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the
week, through the weekend. A surface trough from NE of Cape
Canaveral to SW of Tampa Bay Florida will drift W through mid-
week. Low pressure 1011 mb near 30N71W along a trough will drift
W through the week well N of the Bahamas. This low has a low
chance of tropical formation.

$$
mt
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