[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 18.7N 44.3W at 2100 UTC
or about 11750 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands or 1070 nm east
of the northern Leeward Islands, moving northwest at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows increasing scattered
moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the center, except
60 nm in the SE quadrant. Paulette will continue on its current
motion through tonight before a turn toward the west-northwest or
west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days. Slight additional strengthening is
expected tonight and Paulette could be near hurricane strength
tonight. Gradual weakening is then expected by late Wed. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.8N 27.9W at 2100 UTC or
230 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands moving westward
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that the primary convective band is not presently
well-defined, and is broken into a few clusters of strong
convection for the time being. Rene will continue on its current
motion through tonight, before it accelerates toward the west to
west-northwest over the next two or three days. The center of
Rene is gradually moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands late
this afternoon, and rainfall is expected to gradually end across
the islands later tonight. Slow and gradual strengthening is
expected over the next few days, with Rene expected to become a
hurricane near 20N37W Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 74W-75W south
of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave has moved into a
area of sinking atmospheric motion caused by an upper level low
across the northeast Caribbean. This is currently limiting shower
and thunderstorm activity over water associated with the wave.
However clusters of moderate to strong convection prevail across
coastal areas of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis has shifted southward since last night
and has detached from Tropical Storm Rene. The trough extends from
1006 mb low pressure across inland Africa near 11N06W and extends to
the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and to near 05N16W. The ITCZ
extends from the southwest of Tropical Storm Paulette near 10N50W
to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09.5N
between 25W-34W and within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ west of
45W.

A strong West African squall line with scattered to numerous strong
convection is quickly approaching the west coast of Africa from
08N to 16N. This weather will move over water during the next
several hours and produce strong winds with gusts to gale force,
torrential rain, and frequent lightning.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal boundary is stationary across the northern
Florida Peninsula as high pressure over the Carolinas continues to
extend southwestward to over the central Gulf. An upper-level
trough is over the eastern Gulf and is acting to enhance late
afternoon convection over the Florida peninsula, focused along a
surface trough from near just offshore of the Florida Gulf coast
near 27N85W south- southwestward to 24N85W and to the northern
Yucatan Channel. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms are
within 180 nm SE of this trough. Elsewhere widely scattered
moderate convection dots the waters from offshore of the Yucatan
Penninsula to the SE Texas coastal waters. Afternoon altimeter
data and buoy observations reveal relatively low seas in the range
of 1-3 ft throughout the basin.

As for the forecast, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into late part of the week. The eastern Gulf surface
trough will move slowly westward through the remainder of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure pattern persists over the area as
was shown in the latest pressure analysis. An elongated upper-
level low is located over the eastern Caribbean at 15N66W, with a
trough extending southwestward to near 13N67W. As mentioned above,
sinking motion just west of the low and trough are limiting
convection near the central Caribbean tropical wave. Scattered
moderate convection, focused by the eastern extension of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is seen from 10N-12N between 75W-
80W.

The tropical wave will continue westward through the central
Caribbean through Wed, then across the western Caribbean late in
week. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate trades
throughout the basin. Little change in marine conditions is
anticipated through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
both Tropical Storm Paulette and on Tropical Storm Rene.

A weakening stationary front is analyzed over northern Florida,
and extends northeastward to offshore of the Carolinas. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the front. A
1012 mb low pressure area is near 30N71W along a trough axis N of
26N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near
the low and extends southward to 25N between 67W-73W. This low
pressure system has a low chance of tropical formation through
the next 48 hours as it drifts westward well to the north and
northeast of the Bahamas during the rest of the week. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 22N to 26N from across the
Bahamas to offshore of the Florida coast. Additional scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 60W-68W.

The stationary front off the northeast Florida coast will
dissipate tonight. Large swells associated with Paulette will
spread into the waters east of the Bahamas by the end of the week
into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate wind flow
will prevail across the basin through the week.

$$
Stripling
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