[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...PAULETTE...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 20.0N 46.5W at 09/1500
UTC or 950 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is
sheared with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
noted within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 180 nm
NW quad. A W to WNW motion should continue through Friday,
followed by a turn to the NW Friday night and Saturday. Some
slight weakening is forecast during the next couple days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...RENE...

Rene has re-strengthened to a tropical storm and is centered near
17.6N 31.5W at 09/1500 UTC, or 445 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde
Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180
nm in the W semicircle and within 60 nm in the E semicircle. Rene
will continue moving W-NW for the next couple of days, followed
by a turn to the NW. Rene is forecast to continue strengthening,
and it could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA...

A tropical wave over west Africa along 10/11W is expected to
emerge off the coast of west Africa on Thursday. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-17N, between
07W-17W, including over west Africa. Gradual development is
expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 79/80W from 18N southward, moving W
at 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the wave axis
from Panama to 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

No monsoon trough is noted in the eastern and central Atlantic
due to the circulations of Paulette and Rene. The ITCZ extends
from 12N50W to 11N60W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends from the coast of Colombia near 11N74W to near the Costa
Rica/Nicaragua border near 11N84W and beyond. Isolated showers
and tstorms are noted along and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ.
Isolated moderate convection is seen in the Caribbean Sea off
the coast of Colombia from 10N-14N between 73W-78W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida SW to
22.5N89W. This trough exists in this location from the surface
to 700 mb. The GOES-16 mid-level water vapor channel and TPW
imagery show abundant moisture over the far eastern Gulf and
over the Florida peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 23.5N-28N, between 80W-84.5W,
including over the southern half of the Florida peninsula.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the NE Gulf
east of 90W and north of 27.5N. Similar convection is over
western Cuba and off the N coast of western Cuba. Farther
west, a cold front is over central Texas. Isolated showers
and tstorms are streaming out ahead of the front to areas
along the coast of Texas. Gentle wind speeds prevail
across the SE and south-central Gulf, with moderate winds
over the NE Gulf and the western Gulf.

The surface trough extending from Tampa Bay to 22.5N89W
will drift W through the week. High pressure N-NE of the
area will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil
marine conditions through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with the tropical wave along 80W and the
east Pacific monsoon trough are described in the sections above.
Upper-level diffluence in the NW Caribbean Sea is enhancing
scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 20N
between 80.5W-85W, including over western Cuba. Farther east,
an upper-level trough that is most pronounced south of the
Dominican Republic is inducing isolated to scattered moderate
showers and tstorms between Puerto Rico and Jamaica, from
16N-20N, including near the Windward and Mona passages. A
recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate trades between
60W-76W. Gentle trades prevail west of 76W.

Large swells associated with Tropical Storm Paulette may spread
through Atlantic passages by the end of the week into the
weekend from the Leeward Islands to the Mona Passage. Paulette
is forecast to pass more than 450 nm NE of the Caribbean on
Saturday when the center moves near 24N56W on a NW course.
Elsewhere, the tropical wave along 80W will decelerate as it
moves W through the western Caribbean for the remainder of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene.

A 1012 mb low is analyzed near 31N73W. The low is forecast to
move NW. This system has a low chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone before it reaches the Carolinas late Thursday.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong conevction are noted N
of 21N between 62W-74W. An upper-level trough axis extends from
27N48W to 25N59W to 31N70W, enhancing the aforementioned
convection. Additional showers and tstorms extend from the NW
Bahamas through South Florida, partially due to a low-level
trough that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Tampa
Bay to St. Augustine Florida. A stationary front extends from
Cape Hatteras to 31N80W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh E
winds to the NE of a line from 20N57W to 30N71W, with moderate
winds SW of that line, and gentle winds west of 74W.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move to near 21N50W Thu morning,
21N53W Fri morning, and 24N56W Sat morning. Paulette will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 27N59W by early
Sun. Large swells associated with Paulette may spread into the
waters E of the Bahamas by the end of the week through the
weekend. Elsewhere, a surface trough from NE of St. Augustine
Florida to SW of Tampa Bay will drift W through Thu.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net