[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 07/0300 UTC Tropical Depression Seventeen has developed
near 17.0N 41.5W 1006 mb moving W at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 160 nm of the low. Seventeen is forecast to
continue this motion today. By late Monday and Tuesday, a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected, and that motion should
continue into Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

A tropical wave is near 18W from 03N-20N moving W at 10-15
kt. Low pressure of 1006 MB accompanies this wave near 14.7N
18.4W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
14N to 18N east of 20W to the coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this low, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple
of days while it moves generally westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall is likely there Monday night and Tuesday. There
is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next
48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 61W from 19N southward, moving W at
15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 75W S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N-22N
between 71W-77W including Haiti and eastern coast of Cuba.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted
where the wave intersects the Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 15N16W to a 1006 mb low
pressure near 14N18W to a second low pressure near 17N41W to
11N50W. The ITCZ continues from 11N50W to 10N61W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the special features section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 19N between
22W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within
180 nm of the ITCZ between 49W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from the western Atlantic
into northeast FL. Scattered moderate convection are noted in the
vicinity of the front from 26N E of 84W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 23N97W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is W
of 93W. Another Surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. This trough is Enhancing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection south of 19N in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf, with light to
gentle winds over the northern Gulf.

The stationary front that was over the northern Gulf has
dissipated with high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley
building in across the Gulf. A trough over the SW Gulf will linger
through Mon before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds in the SW
Gulf and Bay of Campeche will diminish later tonight. A cold front
may attempt to move into the western Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across
the western Caribbean except moderate easterly winds south of
18N in the Gulf of Honduras.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will remain well E of the area
through much of the week but is forecast to reach near 20.4N
51.9W late Thu as a tropical storm. Otherwise, a tropical wave S
of eastern Cuba to northern Colombia will move across the western
Caribbean through Tue and move out of the basin Tue night while a
second tropical wave moves into the central forecast waters.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the basin through
the week, occasionally and locally moderate to fresh in the S
central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with two
areas of low pressures across the eastern tropical Atlantic
waters.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 33N76W to Florida
near 29N81W. A surface trough extends from 31N64W to 26N63W.
Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the
trough S of 30N. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 29N
from northern Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This
convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas and
Cuba. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South
Florida for much of the week.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters N of 20N.
Strong winds are noted within 180 nm N semicircle of low pres
near 16N41W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of
20N.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will remain well E of the area
through much of the week but is forecast to reach near 20.4N
51.9W late Thu as a tropical storm. Elsewhere, a stationary
front in the NE Florida coast will dissipate through early
Mon. A trough N of 26N along 65W will drift W through the week.
Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail across the basin
through the week.

$$
MTorres
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