[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seventeen is centered near 17.3N 42.1W at
07/0900 UTC or 1040 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in
the NE semicircle and 30 nm in the SW semicircle. The depression is
moving toward the WNW and this motion is expected to continue for
the next few days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Some
slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near 15.2N 20.3W at
07/0900 UTC or 220 nm ESE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 240-300
nm in the NW semicircle. The depression is moving toward the W
and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands later today and tonight, and is expected to produce 2 to
5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tue. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 20W from 03N-21N along Tropical
Depression Eighteen. Convection and movement is described above.

A tropical wave axis is near 64W/65W from 20N southward across the
Anegada Passage to the N central coast of Venezuela, moving W at
20 kt. No significant convection is noted over land, however there
is scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the wave
axis over Venezuela.

A tropical wave axis is near 76W from the S coast of Cuba and near
Jamaica to Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 76W-79W,
and within 90 nm NW of the coast of Colombia with additional
activity over land N of 08N.

A tropical wave axis is near 94W across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
southward into the east Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of
20N and E of 94W with additional activity inland over Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal at 15N17W to
Tropical Depression Eighteen to 18N37W then resumes W of Tropical
Depression Seventeen to 11N50W. The ITCZ continues from 11N50W to
near the border of Guyana and Brazil at 08N60W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-19N between
34W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-13W
between 16W-20W, within 120 nm SW of the monsoon trough between
24W-30W, from 12N-14N between 35W- 40W, and from 09N-11N between
47W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula.
A surface trough is in the SW Gulf from 24N97W to 19N94W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted W of
the trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure is building across the
basin from the Carolinas with mainly gentle to moderate easterly
flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less across the NE
half of the Gulf, and 3-4 ft across the SW half of the Gulf.

The trough over the SW Gulf will linger today before dissipating.
A weak cold front may dip into the northern Gulf by mid-week
before dissipating. Overall gentle to moderate flow is expected to
continue through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across
the western Caribbean except moderate easterly winds S of 18N in
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft across the basin,
except locally 5 ft in the central portion.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will remain well E of the area
through much of the week, but is forecast to reach near 20.6N
52.7W early Fri as a tropical storm and then near 21.7N 55.5W
early Sat. Otherwise, a tropical wave S of eastern Cuba across
Jamaica to Colombia will move across the western Caribbean through
Tue and move out of the basin Tue night while a second tropical
wave moves from the eastern Caribbean into the central forecast
waters. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the basin
through the week, occasionally and locally moderate to fresh in
the S central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Seventeen and Tropical Depression Eighteen.

A stationary front extends across the Florida Peninsula NE off the
N Florida coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90
nm SE of the front. A 1011 mb low pressure is near 30N65W along
NW to SE trough which reaches to 27N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 26N-28N between 63W-67W. A ridge of high
pressure extends from NW to SE through 26N72W with mainly moderate
E-SE winds SW of the ridge, and gentle winds NE of the ridge
except stronger winds near the low pressure area on the NE side.

Isolated convection is also noted from the Central Bahamas
westward through the Straits of Florida associated with a tropical
upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is currently located near
South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of
South Florida for much of the week.

Tropical Depression Seventeen will remain well E of the area
through much of the week, but is forecast to reach near 20.6N
52.7W early Fri as a tropical storm and then near 21.7N 55.5W
early Sat. Elsewhere, a stationary front off the NE Florida coast
will dissipate through today. Weak low pres near 30N65W will drift
W through the week. Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail
across the basin through the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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