[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2220 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is near 18/19W from 05N-21N moving W at 10-15
kt. Low pressure of 1006 MB has developed along this wave near
14.5N18.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 18N east of 21W to the coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
low, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next couple of days while it moves generally westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall is likely there Monday night and
Tuesday. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave axis is near 39W from 03N-22N moving W 10 kt. A
1005 mb low is along the wave axis near 16.5N40.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the
low. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development
within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 61W from 19N southward, moving W at
15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 74W S of 20N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N- 19N
between 72W- 77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also noted where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 17N16W to low pres near
14.5N18.5W to 12N25W to low pres near 16.5N40.5W to 09N51W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N51W to 10N59W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the special features section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 21W and 37W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 51W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 28N82W to
28N90W to near 28N96W. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N96W
to 19N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is W
of 93W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf,
with light to gentle winds over the northern Gulf.

The front will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche tonight.
A cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with
fresh to strong winds behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail across
the western Caribbean.

Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail across the central
basin through Mon, then diminish to moderate the remainder
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with two
areas of low pressures across the eastern tropical Atlantic
waters.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N77W to Daytona
Beach Florida near 29N81W. A surface trough extends from 32N63W
to 27N65W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm east of the
trough S of 29N. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 28N
from the Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This
convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas and
Cuba. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South
Florida for much of the week.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters N of 20N.
Strong winds are noted within 270 nm N semicircle of low pres
near 16.5N40.5W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of
20N.

A trough just E of the NE offshore waters will drift W through
the early part of the week with low pres possibly developing
along it before dissipating by late Thu. High pres will build
N-NE of the area by mid-week with moderate to locally fresh E-SE
flow prevailing. An area of low pressure, with a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone, may affect the waters E of 65W by
the end of the week.

$$
AL
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