[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060948
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
548 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low accompanied with a tropical wave located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic is near 18.5N38W moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
16N-18N between 38W-43W. Earlier scatterometer data showed that
this low was located more to the W-SW than previous fixes.
Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves
westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next day or two as the system reaches the
central tropical Atlantic.
This system has a high chance for development within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along the coast of Africa near 16W,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 11N-20N between 13W-23W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-11N between 13W-17W. This
wave will likely bring heavy rainfall to the Cabo Verde Islands
during the next couple of days.

A tropical wave axis is near 38W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N-19N between 37W-
39W and from 08N-10N between 37W-43W.

A tropical wave axis is near 59W/60W from 19N southward to the
coast of Guyana, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave axis is near 72W/73W from across Haiti southward
to near the western Venezuela/Colombia border, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
15N-19N between 68W-74W, with additional convection noted over
far NW Venezuela and portions of central and western Colombia
ahead of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 92W from near the Bay of Campeche
along the coast of Mexico southward into the eastern Pacific
Ocean basin, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted S of 21N in the Bay of Campeche and SW
Gulf of Mexico with additional activity inland ahead of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
Mauritania/Senegal border at 17N16W to 13N35W to 08N47W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N47W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 28W-33W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N-17N between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from just S of Apalachee Bay, Florida
to across the northern Gulf along 28N to near Matagorda Bay,
Texas. Only isolated showers are noted near the front. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Texas/Mexico border SE-S offshore of
Tampico and Veracruz to near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted W-SW of the trough
including over inland portions of Mexico. Winds W of the trough
are increasing to fresh to strong this morning, while an area of
fresh to strong easterly winds are E of the trough NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to an earlier wind surge. Otherwise,
scatterometer data indicates that gentle to moderate easterly flow
prevails. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the E central
Gulf from 24N-26N between 85W-88W due to a weak mid- level
trough.

The front will stall and dissipate through early Mon. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche,
diminishing early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds
and seas will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger
cold front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with
fresh to strong winds at a minimum behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection
near the tropical wave along 70W, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm W-NW of a line from near the Windward
Passage to 13N78W, while scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N-17N between 81W-85W associated with a
couple of mid to upper level troughs. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the
SW Caribbean.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the western
Caribbean by the early part of the week. The tropical wave in the
Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean during
the early part of the week. Otherwise, weak high pres N of the
basin will support moderate trades, locally fresh in the central
Caribbean, for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low
pressure near 18.5N38W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 27N from the Bahamas
westward to the Florida Peninsula. This convection is associated
with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which is
currently located between the Bahamas and Cuba. Deep E/SE flow
will persist as the TUTT progresses towards South Florida. The
TUTT is forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for
much of the week.

A 1018 mb high pressure area is analyzed near 30N72W with broad
ridging from 28N-31N across the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. A
surface trough is noted just E of 65W, from 32N61W to 27N63W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
27N-30N between 58W-65W near the trough axis. Moderate trades
prevail S of 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 25N.

The trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of
the week with low pres possibly developing along it before
dissipating by mid-week. High pres will build N-NE of the area by
mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing.

$$
Lewitsky
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