[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low accompanied with a tropical wave located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic is near 18.8N 35.4W moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity
from 11N-22N between 30W-40W. Gradual development of this system
is expected while it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
This system has a high chance for development within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 35W from 00N-18N, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 11N-22N
between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave axis is near 57W from 00N-18N, moving W at 10
kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this
time.

A tropical wave axis is near 70W S of 19N, moving west at around
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-19N
between 68W-72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 14N34W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N54W.
Aside from convection discussed above, scattered moderate
isolated convection is noted 400 nm southeast of the monsoon
trough east of 23W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted elsewhere.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to 21N94W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 28N and W of 93W. Tropical
wave along 90W is enhancing scattered moderate convection S of
21N between 95W-90W in the Bay of Campeche. In the northern
Gulf, a weak cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure
over southern Georgia. The front extends west across Louisiana
to NE Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south
of 28N to 24N between 82W-85W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the basin, except light winds in the vicinity of the
trough in the western Gulf and near the cold front in the
northern Gulf.

The weak front will stall and dissipate Sun through early Mon. A
weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds and seas will prevail
for the early part of the week. A stronger cold front may move
into the western Gulf late Wed night with fresh to strong winds
at a minimum behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection
near the tropical wave along 70W, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 12N-19N between 74W-81W and scattered showers in the
NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail across the basin except for light and gentle winds in the
SW Caribbean.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean by the early part of the week. Another
tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic will move into the
eastern Caribbean during the early part of the week. Otherwise,
weak high-pressure N of the basin will support moderate trades,
locally fresh in the central Caribbean, for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for more on the potential for tropical
cyclone formation associated with low pressure near 18.8N 35.4W.

Broad ridging dominates the open Atlantic waters N of 20N with
moderate trades and light to gentle anticyclonic flow N of 23N
west of 53W. ASCAT data shows surface trough from 34N59W to
26N63W with scattered moderate convection north of 26N between
57W-65W.

The weak ridge along 30N will dissipate tonight. A trough just E
of 65W will drift W through the early part of the week before
dissipating by mid-week. High pressure will build N-NE of the area
by mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing. An area
of low pressure, with a high chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone, may affect the waters E of 65W by the end of the week.

$$
MTorres
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