[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2200 UTC Sat Sep 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar is centered near
38.4N 56.9W at 05/2100 UTC or 530 nm NE of Bermuda moving N at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
showers are noted within 90 nm in the E quadrant of Omar. Omar
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early Sunday, and
to dissipate by early Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A 1009 mb low is near 18.5N33.5W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16N-20N between 30W and 40W.
Gradual development of this system is expected while it moves
westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the
system reaches the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a
medium chance for development within the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 33W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N between
30W- 40W.

A tropical wave axis is near 57W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10
kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this
time.

A tropical wave axis is near 69W S of 19N, moving west at around
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 14N- 18N between 66W- 71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
20N16W to 16N25W to 10N44W. The ITCZ continues from 10N44W to
08N55W. Aside from convection discussed above, Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-18N E of 29W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to 19N94W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 26N and W of 92W. High
pressure covers the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the basin, except light winds in the
vicinity of the trough.

A weak front is expected to move into the NNE Gulf tonight. The
front will stall on Sun, then dissipate by Mon. A stronger cold
front may reach the NW Gulf late Wed night. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse off the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay
of Campeche tonight, then moderate to fresh on Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail across the basin.

The passage of two tropical waves and weak surface ridging N of
the area will support moderate to locally fresh trades in the
central Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for more on the potential for tropical
cyclone formation associated with low pressure near 18.5N33.5W.

Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the open Atlantic waters N of
20N with moderate trades S of 24N and light to gentle anticyclonic
flow N of 24N.

The ridge will continue to support moderate trades S of 24N and
light to gentle winds N of 24N. A weak front may drop just S of
31N on Sun, stalling and dissipating through early next week.
Weak low pres and remnant troughing may linger in the NE portion
before dissipating by mid-week as high pres NE of the area builds
in.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net