[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-22N moving W 10 kt. A 1007
mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 16N39W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the low.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or so while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. This system has a high chance for development within
the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is along 17W from 05N-21N moving W at 10-15 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the
wave axis N of 10N. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while it moves generally westward over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall is possible there on Monday and Tuesday.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 60W/61W from 19N southward to the
coast of NE Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave axis is along 73W from across Haiti southward
to N Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 14N-19N between 70W-75W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is inland over N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 17N16W
to 12N27W to 16N39W to 10N46W to 09N53W. The ITCZ continues from
09N53W to 10N59W. Besides the convection mentioned in the special
features section above, widely scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-16N between 25W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/1500 UTC, a dissipating stationary front extends from
Daytona Beach Florida to Crystal River Florida to 28N90W to
N of Corpus Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed from
the Texas/Mexico border SE-S offshore of Tampico and Veracruz
to near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 18N-26N between 94W-98W.
Winds W of the trough are increasing to fresh to strong, while
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds are E of the trough
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to an earlier wind surge.
Otherwise, scatterometer data indicates that gentle to moderate
easterly flow prevails.

The front will fully dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, diminishing
early Mon. A weak pressure pattern and tranquil winds and seas
will prevail for the early part of the week. A stronger cold
front may move into the western Gulf late Wed night with fresh
to strong winds at a minimum behind it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the basin. Aside from the convection
near the tropical wave along 73W, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm W-NW of a line from near the Windward
Passage to 13N78W, while scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N-17N between 81W-85W associated with
an upper level trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across
the basin except for light and gentle winds in the SW Caribbean.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean tonight and move out of the basin Tue night
while a second tropical wave moves into the central forecast
waters. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
across the central basin through early Mon, then diminish to
moderate the remainder forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more on the
potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low
pressure near 16N39W.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N79W to
Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
28N from the Bahamas westward to the Florida Peninsula. This
convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT), which is currently located between the Bahamas
and Cuba. Deep E/SE flow will persist as the TUTT progresses
towards South Florida. The TUTT is forecast to linger in the
vicinity of South Florida for much of the week.

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 27N65W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Moderate
trades prevail S of 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic flow
N of 25N.

A trough just E of 65W will drift W through the early part of the
week with low pres possibly developing along it before
dissipating by mid-week. High pres will build N-NE of the area by
mid-week with gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevailing. An area of
low pressure, with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone,
may affect the waters E of 65W by the end of the week.

$$
Formosa
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