[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. A weak 1008 mb low is analyzed along
the wave axis near 13N63W. Scattered moderate to convection is
noted from 12N to 14N between 61W and 64W. Atmospheric conditions
are expected to be conducive for development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the
system reaches the western Caribbean Sea by early next week. The
potential for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 10N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within
240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W. See Special Features
section above for information about this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean
between 66W and 74W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 23N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
05N28W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
05N to 12N between 35W and 53W, and scattered moderate isolated
strong is elsewhere from 01N to 13N between 23W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula. Scatterometer data shows fresh northerly winds across
most of the basin, with strongest winds near the Texas coast and
in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated moderate showers are evident near
the frontal boundary.

The cold front will move southeast of the area later today. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche
today. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf on
Sunday, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on
Monday, then move south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh to strong
north to northeast winds are expected across the region Sunday
through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical waves along 63W, 71W and 85W are moving westward across
the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave along 63W has a medium chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
See the Special Features section above for more details. Showers
and thunderstorms associated with the other tropical waves are
discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific
Ocean is along 10N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia into Costa
Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted from 10N to 13N
southward from 75W westward. Little change in the position of the
monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is expected through Sat.

Active weather associated with the tropical wave moving into the
eastern Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean
Sea through Fri night. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop from this wave in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front moving off the southeastern coast of the U.S. extends
from 32N79W into northern Florida near 28N81W. Isolated moderate
showers are near and along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are north of 28N ahead of the front to 72W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 13N54W to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the trough axis. The trough is
expected to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles tonight.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward, associated with an elongated 1023 mb high
pressure centered near 32N26W. Generally fair weather conditions
prevail across most of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N
and east of 65W.

The cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will extend from
near Bermuda to southern Florida this evening, then stall and
dissipate from 28N65W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front across
northern waters today. A strong cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday, with strong north to
northeast winds and building seas expected NW of the front.

$$
Mundell
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