[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. A 1007 mb low is along the wave axis
near 13N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
along and west of the low from 11N-16N between 63W-67W. The shower
activity continues to become better organized in association with a
tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the
system moves into the central and western Caribbean Sea. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48
hours. By late weekend through early next week, this system has the
potential to bring extreme heavy rainfall from Jamaica westward to
portions of Central America, including Honduras and Nicaragua.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 09N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within
100 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within
100 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W to 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 06N23W,
then continues west of a tropical wave near 05N25W to 04N36W to
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends off the central Florida coast
27N82W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. A pre-frontal trough
is noted from 26N81W to 24N83W. Showers are within 50 nm of the
front. High pressure continues to build across the western and
central Gulf behind the cold front. Light to moderate northerly
winds are noted in the northern and central Gulf. Fresh to near
gale-force northerly winds are observed across the Bay of Campeche.
Seas are averaging 6-9 ft with upwards of 11 ft in the southern Bay
of Campeche.

The cold front will move southeast of the area later today. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are possible in the Bay of Campeche today. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, extend from
southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Mon, and move south of
the area Tue. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected
across the region Sun through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean. The other two tropical waves are
discussed in the Tropical Waves section.

A 1009 mb low is noted in the SW Caribbean near 11N76W with a 1010
mb low near 11N82W. The monsoon trough extends along both of these
lows from 11N76W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered
moderate convection is off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica
from 10N-15N between 79W-84W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in
the eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds across the rest of
the basin. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the
1007 mb low in the eastern Caribbean.

Active weather associated with a tropical wave moving into the
eastern Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean Sea
through the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this wave in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front in the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward from 31N75W to the central Florida coast near 28N80W.
A pre-frontal trough is noted from 29N77W to 26N80W. Isolated
thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh WNW
winds are behind the front with moderate to fresh WSW winds ahead of
the front. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 29N40W. Light to gentle winds
are observed across portions of the western and central Atlantic
with seas 5-7 ft.

The cold front moving off the Florida coast will extend from near
Bermuda to southern Florida tonight, then stall and dissipate from
28N69W to the Florida Keys Sat. Fresh to strong south to southwest
winds are expected ahead of the front across northern waters today.
A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sun night
through Tue, with strong north to northwest winds and building seas
behind the front.

$$
AReinhart
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