[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone ZETA, at 30/0000 UTC, is about 80 nm to
the east of the coast of New Jersey. The last forecast/advisory
was written by the NHC at 29/2100 UTC. The maximum sustained
wind speeds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots, according to
the last NHC bulletin. The ZETA low pressure center has been
absorbed by a frontal boundary. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 90 nm of the
ZETA low pressure center in the N semicircle, and within 90 nm
to the north of the accompanying frontal boundary. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 32N to 34N between 76W
and 78W, and from 35N to 37N between 72W and 75W. Additional
information about this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts. issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters, within
120 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 100 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 16N southward to land. The
precipitation pattern has become a little more concentrated this
evening. The atmospheric  conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this disturbance during the next
few days. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by the
time that the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early
next week. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 10N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A surface trough is along 12N54W 06N52W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong is from 10N to 13N
between 46W and 53W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters, within
120 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 100 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 16N southward to land.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N in the Caribbean
Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 65W and 72W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from the tropical wave westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is between 80W and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
06N24W 05N27W 05N35W 07N40W, and 07N50W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 01N to 03N between 24W and
27W, from 07N to 09N between 35W and 40W, and from 04N to 10N
between 42W and 48W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through north central Florida near 30N82W,
into the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W, into the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is to the south and
southeast of the line that runs from 20N92W to 19N96W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere within 60 nm to 90 nm to the SE of the
cold front.

The current cold front, that extends from northern Florida to
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, will move southeast of the
area on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in
the SW Gulf of Mexico through Friday. A strong cold front will
move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and extend from
southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. Fresh to
strong north to northeast winds are expected across the region
from Sunday through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One is along
61W/62W. The second tropical wave is along 69W/70W. The third
tropical wave is along 83W/84W. Precipitation is related to each
tropical wave. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for
more details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward from 75W
westward.

Active weather, associated with a tropical wave moving across
the Lesser Antilles, will shift westward into the eastern
section and the central section of the Caribbean Sea, through
Friday night. It is possible that an area of low pressure may
form from this tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean Sea, during
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N26W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward.

A cold front will move off the southeastern coast of the U.S.A.
tonight. The cold front will extend from near Bermuda to
southern Florida on Friday, and then stall and dissipate from
28N65W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected to the east of the front, across
the northern waters, through Friday. A strong cold front will
sweep across the forecast area, from Sunday night through
Tuesday. Expect strong north to northeast winds and building
seas, to the NW of the cold front.

$$
mt
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