[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta is racing across the Mid-Atlantic
States, centered near 38.8N 75.3W at 2100 UTC, or about 25 mi WSW
of Cape May, New Jersey, moving NE at 55 mph. Estimated central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 mph with
gusts to 60 mph. On this track, Zeta is expected to move out over
the waters of the western Atlantic this evening and become
absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday
night. Please read the last NHC Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed off the west coast of
Africa, along 17W/18W, from 11N southward, moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave near the
ITCZ, from 02N to 05N between 18W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 60W from 19N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 11N-17N between 57.5W-62W. Strong
easterly trade winds and high seas trail the wave across the
Tropical Atlantic to the central Lesser Antilles.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 67W from 22N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 11.5N-19N between 63W-70W. Upper-
level winds are expected to become more conducive for development
of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week
while the system and the tropical wave along 60W moves westward
across the central and western Caribbean Sea and gradually merge.
This system has a low chance of formation through the next 48
hours and a medium chance through the next 5 days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 82W from 22N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 77W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N54W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 26W-
42W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 06N-12.5N between 43W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1800 UTC, a cold front stretches from the western Florida
Panhandle near 30.5N86.5W across the Gulf to the central Bay of
Campeche near 18.5N94.5W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from
the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Showers and a
few weak thunderstorms are observed along the front and pre-
frontal trough in the NE Gulf north of 26N, while scattered
showers and isolated moderate thunderstorms are observed between
the trough and the front south of 23N to the Bay of Campeche.
High pressure is building across the western Gulf behind the cold
front with fresh to strong NW winds, especially off the coasts N
of 27N between Texas and the Florida Panhandle, where seas are
7-8 ft. Near gale force NNW winds are occurring off of Veracruz
Mexico where seas are building to 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are noted ahead of the front.

Zeta weakened to a tropical storm inland and is moving across
portions of Virginia and North Carolina. Zeta will continue
racing northeast away from the Gulf today and will become
extratropical this afternoon. Marine conditions along the
northern Gulf coast will quickly improve tonight as the cold
front will move quickly east and clear the basin by Fri. Fresh to
strong northwest winds behind the front will spread across the
Gulf through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical
waves crossing the Caribbean. These tropical waves have the
potential for tropical development this weekend or early next
week.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to low pres
1009 mb near 11N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N82W.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern and central
Caribbean with strong east winds and seas to 8 ft spreading
through the Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle trades in the western basin where seas are averaging 3-6
ft.

The western Caribbean tropical wave is moving ashore across
Central America this evening. Another tropical wave along 60W
will cross into the eastern Caribbean tonight, the central
Caribbean through Fri night then enter the western Caribbean this
weekend. Thunderstorms and gusty winds will accompany this wave.
This wave is expected to help low pressure to form in the SW
Caribbean this weekend. Gradually development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system meanders in the SW Caribbean. This system has the
potential to bring heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America by the end of the weekend into early next week, mostly
from Honduras southward toward Costa Rica.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the above tropical waves section for details on the tropical
wave reaching the Lesser Antilles. High pressure dominates the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 32N26W extending
a ridge to a second 1022 mb high near 29N44W then extending weakly
westward to northern Florida. Fresh to strong SSW winds are noted
off the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts and extend eastward
into offshore waters of the western Atlantic. Otherwise, light to
gentle easterly winds are seen across the rest of the basin. Seas
are averaging 5-8 ft.

A tight pressure gradient between lower pressure in the
Caribbean and high pressure over the central Atlantic will lead
to moderate to fresh winds south of 27N tonight, while strong
tradewinds to 25 kt follow the tropical wave reaching the Lesser
Antilles. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
Thu night, with some strong southwest winds ahead of it, north of
about 29N. These winds will spread east as the front reaches a
line from Bermuda to the Bahamas to Cuba this weekend and stalls.
Some strong north winds are possible behind the front north of
about 29N this weekend. A stronger cold front will sweep across
the western half of the area Sun night through Tue, followed by
strong to near gale force north to northeast winds and building
seas.

$$
Stripling
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