[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Zeta is centered near 25.1N 91.8W at 28/0900 UTC or
280 nm SSW of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NNW at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 120 nm of the center all quadrants
except 210 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is
along located NE of Zeta, from 25N to 31N between 86 and 90W, and
extending S of Zeta, from 19N to 24N between 88W and 92W. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.
Please, read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public
Advisory on Zeta, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 20N southward,
moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convectionis noted from 10N to 20N between 55W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from Hispaniola to
western Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this wave is located just south of the
Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to to
07N34W 08N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
located withing the vicinity of the ITCZ from 03N to 12N between
40W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Category
1 Hurricane Zeta in the central Gulf of Mexico. Zeta is expected
to quickly move north and bring life-threatening storm surge and
strong winds to portions of Louisiana by midday today.

A previously stationary front is now moving east as a cold front
off the Texas coast, stretching from 30N94W to 22N98W. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds are occurring behind this front.

Hurricane Zeta will move to 27.9N 91.1W this afternoon then move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.8N 87.5W Thu
morning. Tropical Storm Zeta will become an extratropical cyclone
over Virginia Thu afternoon. A cold front will stretch from the
Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan Peninsula by late Thu. By late
Fri, the front will move SE of the area. Some strong N winds are
expected behind the front in the northwest Gulf today and Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the above Tropical Waves section for information on the
tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean. The eastern
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica is along
09N/11N to 73W in northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the Central American coast from Honduras southward
as well as over the Gulf of Honduras.

The tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 72W is followed
by fresh to strong east winds. The wave will move across the
Jamaica tonight and the western Caribbean through Fri. Another
tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles tonight, and cross
the eastern Caribbean into Fri. Gusty winds and showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this wave, particularly over the
Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the tropical wave section above for details on the
tropical wave that is gradually approaching the Lesser Antilles.
An upper level trough resides ahead of this wave and reaches
farther north to around 25N, extending S across the Leeward and
Windward Islands. This trough is enhancing the precipitation
described above, associated with the tropical wave.

High pressure of 1024 mb centered SSW of The Azores near 31N32W is
dominating weather over much of the area. On the southern
periphery of the ridge influence, a broad area of enhanced trade
winds, fresh to strong, is occurring between 10N and 25N across
the basin.

Tight pressure gradient between lower pressure in the
Caribbean and high pressure over the central Atlantic will lead
to moderate to fresh winds S of 27N through Thu night. A cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night, with some strong
SW winds ahead of it, N of 29N N. These winds will spread east as
the front reaches a line from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to central
Cuba this weekend and stalls. Some strong N winds are possible
behind the front N of 29N this weekend. A tropical wave will pass
south of the area today, bringing gusty winds, showers, and
thunderstorms into Thu night for the eastern Greater Antilles and
the Turks and Caicos Islands.

$$
KONARIK
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