[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Zeta is centered near 27.9N 91.1W at 28/1800 UTC or 125
nm SW of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NNE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 75 nm of the center in the W semicircle and
within 60 nm east semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quad, 90 nm SW quad and 120 nm NW quad.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the
center in the N semicircle and 180 nm S semicircle. The analysis
from this morning indicates that Zeta is producing maximum
significant wave heights of 33 ft near the center. The center of
Zeta will make landfall in SE Louisiana late this afternoon. Zeta
will then move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and
move across the southeastern and eastern United States on
Thursday. Very high waves and hurricane force winds will continue
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico through this evening before
diminishing overnight and early Thu morning. Zeta is expected to
bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane force winds to
portions of the SE Louisiana coast beginning by early afternoon
today and to the Mississippi and Alabama coasts by late this
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
NHC at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine
impacts. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory on Zeta at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 47/48W from
03N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm west of the wave axis from 06N-11N, and within 240
nm east of the wave axis from 08N-11N. Strong winds are east of
the wave axis from 10N-14N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 04N-17N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. A mid to upper level trough is located just to the
northwest of this tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N-18N between 56W-62W. Strong
winds are behind the wave axis from 12N-15N. Expect an
enhancement of showers along with gusty winds over the Lesser
Antilles this evening through early Thursday. Enhanced rainfall
is possible in Puerto Rico Thursday through Friday, and in
Hispaniola Friday through Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 05N-21N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N38W to 07N46W,
then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N50W to 09N56W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 05W-22W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 28W-38W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between 51W-55.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Zeta in the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from 29.5N
94W to 23N94W to 21N97W to 21N99W. Near gale NW winds are
occurring behind this front from 24N-28.5N and east of 96W.
Strong NW winds are elsewhere behind the front. The front will
cross the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Zeta moves inland. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan
Peninsula by late Thu. By late Fri, the front will move southeast
of the area. Strong northwest winds behind the front will
diminish to fresh speeds Thu through Fri. High pressure will
build in behind the front through the weekend, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding throughout. A strong cold front
will cross the area Sun and Sun night followed by fresh to strong
N to NE winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough is over the eastern Caribbean. A
tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight. The
combination of the upper trough and the tropical wave will
produce a significant enhancement of showers and tstorms across
the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean through Thursday.
Strong E winds are expected behind the tropical wave. As the
wave crosses the central Caribbean Fri through Sat, gusty winds
along with showers and tstorms will continue to accompany the
wave, particularly over the Greater Antilles.

Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the central Caribbean
in association with a tropical wave along 74W. This wave will
move across the western Caribbean Thu through Fri.

Elsewhere currently, scattered showers are seen along the coast
and just inland between Tulum, Mexico and Belize City, Belize.
Scattered moderate convection is seen over Panama, Costa Rica and
southern Nicaragua in association with the east Pacific monsoon
trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds over the
NE Caribbean north of 15N and east of 73W. Fresh E winds are
south of Cuba and north of the Cayman Islands. Mainly moderate
wind speeds prevail elsewhere.

A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early Sat
and reach the central Caribbean by late Sun. This wave will also
contain numerous showers and tstorms and be followed by fresh to
strong east winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure near 32N29W
to a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N62W to the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina. Light to gentle wind speeds prevail from
27N-32N between 50W-82W. Fresh trades are farther south from
19N-25N between 50W-82W. Strong trades are occurring in the
tropical Atlantic over much of the area from 10N-19N between
39W-59W.

A mid to upper level trough resides over the central Atlantic
near 60W from 30N southward to the eastern Caribbean. Scattered
showers are south of 26N between 53W-63W. No major areas of
shower activity are seen across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected south of
27N through Thu night. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast Thu night with strong SW winds ahead of it, north of 29N.
These winds will spread east as the front reaches a line from
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to central Cuba this weekend and
stalls. Strong N winds are possible behind the front north of 29N
this weekend. The northern part of a tropical wave will move
across the waters just north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands
this afternoon and north of Puerto Rico Thu night, followed by
fresh to strong east winds. Scattered showers and tstorms will
impact most of the eastern Greater Antilles and also the
southeastern Bahamas from Thu night into the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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