[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ZETA is forecast to be a fast-moving hurricane, that brings
life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, starting in SE
Louisiana, by midday, today, on Wednesday.

The center of Tropical Storm ZETA, at 28/0300 UTC, is near 23.8N
91.2W. This position also is about 340 nm/625 km to the SSW of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and about 380 nm/695 km to the S of
New Orleans in Louisiana. ZETA is moving toward the NW or 325
degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm
of the center in the NW semicircle. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to strong is elsewhere within 250 nm of the center in the
NW semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE semicircle.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 35 nm of the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from 20N to 21N. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, issued by NHC, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.
Please, read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public
Advisory on Zeta, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 17N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. This tropical wave is in
the middle of precipitation that is accompanying the ITCZ to its
east, and precipitation that is accompanying an upper level to
its west.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N to 23N, within
270 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 100 nm to
the east of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 06N30W
and 07N35W, to 08N50W and 09N53W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 42W and 51W, and within 150 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 42W and 47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong is within 500 nm to the SE of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 22W eastward, and within 300 nm to the south of
the ITCZ between 28W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm ZETA is the big feature at the moment. ZETA is
forecast to be a fast-moving hurricane, that brings
life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, starting in SE
Louisiana, by midday, today, on Wednesday. The center of
Tropical Storm ZETA, at 28/0300 UTC, is near 23.8N 91.2W. This
position also is about 340 nm/625 km to the SSW of the mouth of
the Mississippi River, and about 380 nm/695 km to the S of New
Orleans in Louisiana. ZETA is moving toward the NW or 325
degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to
75 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
180 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere within 250 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in
the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong is within 35 nm
of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N to 21N.

A stationary front is in the westernmost sections of the Gulf of
Mexico, from the upper Texas Gulf coast to the coast of Mexico
along 98W near 23N/24N.

Tropical Storm Zeta near 23.8N 91.2W 990 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Zeta
will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 91.7W Wed morning and
move inland to 30.2N 89.7W Wed evening. Tropical Storm Zeta will
weaken to a tropical depression in Georgia and
Tennessee Thu morning, then become extratropical Thu evening. A
stationary front, just offshore the Texas coast, will be
replaced by a cold front, that will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday.
The cold front will stretch from Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula by late Thursday. The cold front will reach western
Cuba on Friday night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
will follow behind the front through Friday night. The Wind
speeds in the area will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: One cluster of
scattered moderate to strong is from 11N to 14N between 83W and
85W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 14N southward
from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere, from 14N northward from Jamaica westward, around the
periphery of the circulation of T.S. ZETA.

Tropical Storm Zeta is moving northward through the central Gulf
of Mexico. Any remaining squalls and
thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel associated with Zeta will
diminish overnight. A tropical wave in  the eastern Caribbean
Sea near 67W is followed by fresh to strong east winds. The wave
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight, the
central Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and the western Caribbean Sea
from Friday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 32N49W to 30N56W, across the
northern islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, beyond northern
coastal Venezuela that is along 67W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 220 nm on either
side of the trough.

A tight pressure gradient, between lower pressure in the
Caribbean Sea and high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean,
will lead to moderate to fresh winds S of 37N through Thursday
night. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on
Friday morning, with some strong SW winds ahead of it, N of 29N
N. These winds will spread eastward, as the front reaches a line
from 29N65W through th central Bahamas and central Cuba this weekend
and stalls. Some strong NW winds are possible behind the front N of
29N during the upcoming weekend. A stronger cold front will enter
the NW waters on Sunday night. A tropical wave will pass through
waters just N of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
bringing gusty winds, showers, and thunderstorms through Thursday.

$$
mt
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