[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Oct 27 18:44:53 CDT 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 272344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Zeta is moving NW at 12 kt across the southern
Gulf of Mexico and away from the Yucatan Peninsula, and is located
near 22.7N 90.3W at 2100 UTC, or 390 nm S of the Mouth of the
Mississippi River. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed remains 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Numerous strong convection is seen within 120 nm across the SW
semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm across the NE semicircle. A large and distinct
rainband of scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends
outward from Zeta, beginning near 150 nm N of the center and
spirals clockwise across the southeast Gulf as far east east as 83W,
then continues SSW across the western Caribbean to the north coast
of Honduras, and then across Central America to the Pacific
coastal waters of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. On the forecast
track, Zeta will move over the south central Gulf of Mexico
tonight while restrengthening to a hurricane. Zeta will move
northward over the central Gulf of Mexico late tonight, then
accelerate and make landfall along the northern Gulf coast late
Wednesday or Wednesday night. Zeta will weaken rapidly as it moves
inland across the SE United States early Thursday. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Zeta
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 56/58W from 05N-17N, moving W near
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 24N
between 54W and 60W. Strong tradewinds are occurring behind the
wave axis north of 11N. The tropical wave will spread enhanced
rainfall and gusty winds across the Lesser Antilles early Wed
through Thu.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 70/71W from 20N over
Hispaniola to the N coast of Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm W and 120
nm E of the wave axis, mainly north of 15N, including over the
waters of the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms extend eastward from 64W across the Lesser Antilles behind
the wave, interacting with an upper-level trough that is nearly
stationary over the area. The wave will increase the likelihood
of showers and tstorms across the Greater Antilles tonight
through Thu.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N38W
to 08N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical
waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 01.5N-08N between 07W and 19W, and from 02N-06N between 27W
and 35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
06N-12N between 40W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Zeta is currently affecting the south-central Gulf
of Mexico, south of 27N between 84W-96W. Zeta is estimated to be
producing seas to 25 ft this evening just NE of the center.
Expect seas of 20 to 30 ft tonight over the central Gulf of Mexico
along with winds of 50 to 75 knots as Zeta restrengthens into a
hurricane. Similar conditions are expected over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday as Zeta approaches the coast of SE
Louisiana. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge
are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late
Wed, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Residents in the warning areas should follow any advice given by
local officials. Please see the special features section above for
more details on Zeta.

A cold front extends from near the Louisiana-Texas border SSW
across the Gulf waters to 23N97W then westward and inland across
NE Mexico. Late morning ASCAT data showed moderate winds
prevailing over the SW Gulf south of 25N and west of 94W. The
front will become stationary tonight as the circulation of Zeta
blocks its advancement. Another cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Wed and stretch from Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Thu. It will reach to near western Cuba Fri night. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds will follow behind the front
through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico. As mentioned above, a large rainband of scattered moderate
to strong convection still persists from the Yucatan Channel to
NE Honduras. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban
areas tonight across western Cuba. These thunderstorms and squalls
will gradually lift northward to over the eastern and central
Gulf of Mexico through Wed. SE winds of 20 to 30 kt are occurring
north of 20N and west of 83.5W, including over the Yucatan
Channel, according to a late morning ASCAT pass. Seas remain 8 to
12 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Expect winds and seas to gradually
diminish through early Wed over the NW Caribbean and Yucatan
Channel as Zeta pulls farther away from the Caribbean basin. See
the special features section above for more details on Zeta.

Away from the direct influence of Zeta, fresh trade winds are
noted across much of the remainder of the basin per morning ASCAT
data, with the exception of mainly light to gentle winds over the
far SW Caribbean offshore of Panama and Costa Rica.

An upper-level trough axis extends from the central Atlantic
near 30N54W to 20N59W to 09N69W over northern Venezuela. The
upper trough is enhancing scattered showers east of 64W and across
portions of the Lesser Antilles.

The tropical wave near 70/71W will move across the central
Caribbean Thu and the western Caribbean Fri. See the tropical
waves section above for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1026 mb
high pressure centered southwest of the Azores near 33N35W and
extends a ridge WSW to a weak surface trough from 30N73W to
25N75W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the central
Atlantic near 30N54W to 20N59W to 09N69W. This feature is acting
to enhance convection across the north portion of the tropical
wave along 56/58W, as described above. Fresh to strong easterly
winds prevail across the Atlantic from 10N-27N between 30W-55W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 17N-27N between 30W and the
coast of Africa.

Moderate to fresh SE winds will persist south of 26N and west
of 70W through Thu. A cold front will move over the waters to
the east of northern Florida on Fri, with some strong SW winds
ahead of it. The front will reach from near 29N65W to the
central Bahamas by late Sat. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will follow this front, mainly north of about 28N,
through the weekend. A combination of northerly and easterly
swell generated from a tropical wave Wed will maintain relatively
high seas north and east of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands
into Thu.

$$
Stripling
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