[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 41.3N 56.1W at 25/0300
UTC or 680 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Epsilon is growing even larger as it
accelerates northeastward. Continued acceleration in that
direction is expected for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is
possible through the weekend, but Epsilon is expected to remain a
large and powerful system even after it becomes post-tropical on
Sunday. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is upgraded to Tropical Storm
Zeta at 25/0600 UTC. At this time, it is centered near 18.5N 83.5W
or 220 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Zeta is currently stationary and is re-
organizing. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass
south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move
into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central
Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Additional strengthening is
expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is currently en route to investigate Zeta. Deep
convection has increased during the past few hours south of the
estimated low- level position. Latest satellite imagery suggests
that the low- level center could be trying to reform closer to the
deep convection. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 16N-19N between 82W-86W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 33W/34W from 03N to 15N,
moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ,
particularly from 06N-09N between 30W-34W.

A tropical wave previously located along 55W/56W is relocated
farther E along 50W/51W from 05N-17N based on Tropical Wave
Diagnostic and 700 mb streamlines. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis.
Similar convection is also observed well ahead of the wave axis
from 08N-12N between 53W-61W. A sharp upper-level trough with
axis just E of Barbados is helping to induce this convective
activity. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh
E-SE winds in this area.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with axis along
70W/71W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave appears to
enhance convection over western Venezuela/northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
09N33W to 06N40W to 07N49W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 09N-11N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted from 04N-09N between 22W-30W, and from
06N-08N between 34W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. This system is
forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and
reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the eastern Gulf.
This feature supports a surface cold front that from the western
Florida Panhandle across the central Gulf near 26N90W to NE mexico
near Ciudad Victoria, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some with frequent lightning, are ahead of the front over N
Florida and the NE Gulf. High pressure is building southeast
over the western Gulf behind the cold front. Latest scatterometer
data indicate generally moderate north to northeast winds behind
the front and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds ahead of
the front forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico, Mexico early Sun morning. The southern part of the front
will move across the Bay of Campeche on Sun while the northern
part will remain nearly stationary. Looking ahead, another cold
front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by
fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. Zeta is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm force winds across
portions of the NW Caribbean. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches
are possible through Wednesday in association with this tropical
cyclone.

The eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough extends into
the southwestern Caribbean across Costa Rica to northern Colombia.
This system, combined with a tropical wave, is enhancing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 10-13N between 71W-
74W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting parts
of eastern Cuba and the Caribbean regional waters. Recent
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong SE-S winds within this
area. Mainly fresh trade winds are noted over the eastern
Caribbean. Winds and seas will continue to increase east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week as
the pressure gradient tighten between the Atlantic ridge and the
tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Epsilon. Large swells generated by Epsilon, located well
N of the forecast area, will continue to impact the waters north
and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun, and will also affect
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for
details.

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Bahamas to near 27N73W.
Scattered moderate convection is just N of the trough to about
29N. Similar convection is also seen from 24N-27N between 65W-71W.
A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective
activity.

A 1031 mb high pressure centered near 34N32W dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
noted per scatterometer data along the southern periphery of the
Atlantic ridge mainly from 17N-23N E of 50W. Similar wind speeds
are observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa.
These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic
waters of Western Sahara and Mauritania.

$$
GR
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