[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 42.8N 53.7W at 25/0900
UTC or 230 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 26 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Epsilon is growing even
larger as it accelerates northeastward. Continued acceleration
in that direction is expected through Mon night. Epsilon is
forecast to become post-tropical later today, but will remain a
large and powerful system until it is absorbed by a larger
extratropical low Tue morning. Large swells generated by Epsilon
will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the
Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at
website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.7N 83.5W at 25/0900 UTC
or 270 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba moving N at 1 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Although Zeta has been
nearly stationary overnight, it is expected to gradually begin to
move a bit faster northwestward in a day or two. On this forecast
track, Zeta will approach the northeastern tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula Mon night and then lift into the central Gulf of Mexico
by Tue night. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by
Tuesday morning. Deep convection continues to increase mainly
south and west of the estimated low-level position. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N-20N between 81W-
87W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Zeta
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 03N to 15N, moving
westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly
from 05N-11N between 29W-34W.

A tropical wave is located along 52W from 05N to 17N, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to
17N between 45W and 57W. This convection is being enhanced to the
west by an upper-level trough with an axis just E of Barbados.
Fresh winds are also accompanying this wave.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with an axis along
73W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring with this wave from 10N to 20N between 71W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
08N36W to 07N49W. No precipitation is occurring along the monsoon
trough and convection near the ITCZ is primarily associated with
the tropical wave described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. This system is
forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and
reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

A surface trough is located offshore the Gulf coast of the Florida
Peninsula. To the west, a cold front stretches from near
Apalachicola Florida to 25N95W to near Tampico Mexico. Showers
and thunderstorms associated with this front have diminished. High
pressure is building southeast over the western Gulf behind the
cold front. Moderate NE winds are occurring behind the front with
gentle to moderate E winds ahead of it. This front will stall
later today from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico, then
dissipate tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast
to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by fresh to strong
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is
expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central
and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with
localized amounts of 12 inches possible.

Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave described
the tropical wave section above and that associated with Tropical
Storm Zeta, the only significant precipitation in the basin is
occurring along the eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon
trough, which stretches from Costa Rica into northern Colombia. To
the north of this trough, fresh east winds are occurring across
most of the basin.

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week between
this system and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Epsilon. Large swells generated by Epsilon, located well
N of the forecast area, will continue to impact the waters north
and northeast of the Bahamas into tonight, and will also affect
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for
details.

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Bahamas to near 27N72W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
21N to 30N between 65W and 80W, and is being enhanced by upper
level diffluence. This activity is impacting much of the Bahamas,
South Florida, and adjacent waters.

A 1030 mb high pressure centered near 34N32W dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic, and a secondary high center of 1020 mb
has developed over Bermuda. South of this ridge, fresh to locally
strong E winds are occurring from 16N to 24N E of 55W. Where the
gradient between this high pressure and low pressure over Africa
is tightens, strong NE winds are occurring between Western Sahara
and the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Zeta will remain west of the area, but will bring
heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Florida Straits,
and adjacent waters into mid-week.

$$
KONARIK
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