[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Corrected Special Feature section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 39.4N 58.2W at 24/2100
UTC or 530 nm NE of Bermuda or about 490 nm south-southwest of
Cape Race, Newfoundland moving NE or 50 degrees at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Latest satellite imagery
shows a comma shape cloud pattern surrounding the cloud system
center of Epsilon. It consist of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant
and of scattered moderate convection within 30 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant. The remainder of the comma shape cloud
pattern consists of areas of rain with embedded scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 39N to 42N between 55W-58W and
from 37N to 39N between 56W-58W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 35N to 37N between 57W-62W. Hurricane
Epsilon is forecast to continue a fast northeastward to east-
northeastward motion is forecast to occur Sun evening and into
early next week. Large swell generated by Epsilon will affect
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days. This swell is likely to result in life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is centered near
18.7N 83.0W at 24/2100 UTC or about 220 nm south-southeast of the
western tip of Cuba or 240 nm east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico
moving north-northwest at 2 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a
more symmetrical shape to the overall cloud pattern of the
depression compared to yesterday. Deep convection of the
moderate to strong type intensity is increasing over the center,
and to within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 60 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection, mostly in small clusters, is noted from 15N to
17N between 82W-87W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of a
line from 13N81W to 16N79W to 19N79W to 21N79W and from 21N to
22N between 76W-79W including most of eastern Cuba. Tropical
Depression Twenty-Eight is forecast to continue on its current
motion through early Sun, strengthen to a tropical storm near
19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt, then turn toward the west-northwest with a faster
forward speed by Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and
approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Mon before
emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tue. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W
from 02N to 14N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of
the wave axis from 07N-09N and within 60 nm west of the wave
axis from 09N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W
south of 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is
just to the east of a sharp upper-level trough axis. This is
providing for instability that is helping to enhance scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm west of
the wave axis from 08N to 12N and within 60 nm east of the wave
axis from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm of 13N57W and within 30 nm of 11N54W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W
south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are confined to 60 nm east of the
wave axis from 13N to 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Guinea-
Bissau near 10N14W to 07N18W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ axis to just east of
the 32W/33W tropical wave near 07N31W and briefly pauses. It
resumes west of the same tropical wave near 07N34W and continues
southwestward from there to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 30-60 nm north of the ITCZ between
35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western
Caribbean Sea.

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the eastern Gulf.
This feature is driving a surface cold front that as 21Z extends
from near For Walton Beach, Florida to 26N91W and to inland
Mexico at 23N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near
Apalachicola to 27N86W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
with frequent lightning, are within 150 nm east of the surface
trough north of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the rest of the eastern Gulf south of 28N.

High pressure is building southeast over the western Gulf behind
the cold front. Latest scatterometer data indicates generally
moderate north to northeast winds behind the cold front and
gentle to moderate east-southeast winds ahead of the cold front
and pre-frontal trough, with the exception of fresh to strong
south-southwest winds associated with the shower and thunderstorm
activity that is occurring to the east of the surface trough.

Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western
Caribbean Sea will to 19.0N 83.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a
tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon
morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon, 22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty-
Eight will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight in the western
Caribbean Sea.

The eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough extends into
the southwestern Caribbean from northern Panama near 09N81W to
12N76W. This features is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 09-13N between 77W-82W and from 11N to
17N between 72W-78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are elsewhere west of 69W.

Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N
83.0W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Twenty-Eight will move to 19.0N 83.2W
Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 83.5W Sun
afternoon, 20.1N 84.2W Mon morning, 20.9N 85.6W Mon afternoon,
22.0N 87.5W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N
89.4W Tue afternoon. Twenty-Eight will weaken to a tropical
storm near 27.5N 91.0W by Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will
continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E
Caribbean through early next week between this system and higher
pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Epsilon.

A surface trough is analyzed from near 27N74W to across the
central Bahamas. A mid-level shortwave trough is noted just to
the northwest of it. These feature are producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of 27N and west of 73W,
including the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. Other
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N
between 64W-73W. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty
winds along with heavy rainfall and reduced visibilities.

A 1029 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 34N33W. A 1026
mb high is over the far eastern Atlantic near 35N12W.

Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon,
now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun. What was an area of
low pressure in the western Caribbean Seais now Tropical
Depression Twenty-Eight near 18.7N 83.0W, 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving NNW at 2 kt. It will move into the southeast Gulf of
Mexico through next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this
system may impact South Florida and the northwest Bahamas into
early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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