[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 33.1N 61.6W at 23/0900 UTC or
170 nm ENE of Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 210
nm of the center in the E semicircle, 120 nm SW quadrant, and 180
nm NW quadrant. Seas 12 feet or greater are noted within 600 nm
of the center in the NE and SW quadrants, 480 nm NW quadrant, and
360 nm SE quadrant with seas to 26 feet. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is located from 30N to 40N between 55W
and 65W. High surf continues to affect Bermuda. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. No significant convection is occurring
in association with this wave as it crosses the Cabo Verde Islands
this morning.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is located from 06N to 12N between 45W and 54W.

A very weak Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is crossing the Lesser
Antilles this morning, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 13N within 500 nm east of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ axis is from 05N30W to 07N41W to
06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the
entire monsoon trough from 02N to 08N and along the ITCZ from 02N
to 08N between 30W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 23N95W to the Yucatan Peninsula near
20N90W. No significant convection is occurring the the Gulf.
Gentle easterly winds cover most of the basin, but moderate to
fresh winds are occurring within about 200 nm of the coast of
Florida.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf through Sat. Low pressure may track northeastward from
western Cuba across the extreme SE Gulf and Florida Straits Sun.
This low has a low chance of tropical formation. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and South
Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Sat morning, weaken further into a surface trough from
the northern Florida into the SW Gulf Sat night, then stall from
South Florida to just north of the Yucatan by Sun night. Gentle
to moderate return flow will establish across the basin on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving west across the Lesser Antilles this morning.

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan peninsula near 20N88W to
15N82W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. A 1011 mb low
pressure center has formed along this trough, south of the Cayman
Islands, near 18N82W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 74W and 83W. This
activity is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of the
Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama through
the extreme SW Carribbean, and to the north coast of Colombia
near 11N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough from 80W eastward.

The aforementioned low pressure in the NW Caribbean may strengthen
through Sat when it should reach northward into central or
western Cuba, and there is a low chance of tropical formation
during this time. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty
winds could impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters
through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on Sat through Tue, ahead
of a tropical wave near 48W this morning, that will approach the
Lesser Antilles by the start of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Epsilon located NE of Bermuda. Please see Tropical
Waves section above for information on two tropical waves crossing
the Atlantic.

In the central Atlantic near 35N38W a 1031 mb high pressure center
is dominating weather for much of the eastern Atlantic. Scattered
moderate convection has developed from 20N to 28N between 48W and
58W. Scattered convection, loosely associated with low pressure in
the northwest Caribbean is also impacting waters near the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the SE and central Bahamas.

Hurricane Epsilon is expected to to accelerate northeastward
through Sat, then become extratropical east of Newfoundland Sun.
The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and
Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over
the western waters through tonight. Long-period northeast swell
will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the
Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from Central
Cuba has a medium chance of tropical formation early next week
over waters near South Florida and the northern and central
Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this weekend
through early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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