[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 23/0300 UTC, is near 32.6N
61.6W. This position is also about 165 nm/300 km to the E of
Bermuda. EPSILON is moving toward the NNW, or 345 degrees, 08
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 kt.
Tropical storm-force winds are within 180 nm of the center in
the N semicircle,  within 210 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant.
The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 600 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, within 360 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, within 560 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and
within 480 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are reaching 27 feet. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 25N49W to 24N53W to 22N56W...from 675 nm
to 780 nm to the SE of the center. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the N
semicircle, and from 16N to 22N between 55W and 62W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 700 nm of the
center in the S semicircle. The hazards affecting the land in
Bermuda are: wind and surf. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is more connected to the monsoon trough and the
ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.  Precipitation:
scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N
within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and from 07N to
11N within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate, to isolated to widely scattered strong is from 07N to
13N within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 330 nm to the west of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal,
along 10N14N, curving to 07N18W, to 05N23W. The ITCZ is along
05N25W 05N34W 07N38W 07N44W, and from 06N47W to 06N56W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 02N to 08N between 14W and 34W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE
coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb
anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500
mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W
westward. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate is from 94W eastward.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. A weak cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, reach from central
Florida to southern Texas on Saturday night, and then stall and
dissipate on Sunday. Gentle to moderate
return flow will establish across the basin on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE
coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb
anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500
mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W
westward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and
widely scattered to scattered strong is from 17N to 20N between
77W and 83W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 14N to 18N
between 73W and 74W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 24N southward from 70W westward, including in
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and in the
rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 13N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 80W
eastward.

A trough of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized thunderstorms in  much of the western and
northwestern sections of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that
the trough may develop more, during the next several days. The
potential for development is low, near Cuba, toward the end of
the weekend. It is possible that heavy rain and gusty winds may
impact Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters, into early next
week. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase to the
east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean Sea, from
Saturday through Monday, as a tropical wave, currently near 44W,
moves across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 23N95W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, across the northern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, to 17N83W in the Caribbean Sea, to the SE
coast of Nicaragua. The GFS model shows broad 250 mb
anticyclonic wind flow from 70W westward. The GFS model for 500
mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 70W
westward. Precipitation:   Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 24N southward from 70W westward, including in
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and in the
rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Epsilon near 32.6N 61.6W 968 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Epsilon
will move to 33.8N 61.6W Fri morning and continuing moving
northward away from the area and Bermuda this weekend. Epsilon
is expected to become extratropical near 48.4N 41.0W Sun
evening, then dissipate late on Monday, well to the east of
Atlantic Canada. The gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean
high pressure and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds
and large seas in the western waters through Friday. Long-period
northeast swell will
continue to impact the waters to the north and northeast of the
Bahamas, through early Saturday.

$$
mt
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