[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 34.1N 61.6W at 23/1500 UTC,
or 195 nm NE of Bermuda, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-forced winds are within
220 nm in the eastern semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant, and
180 nm in the NW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted
within 420 nm in the NE quadrant, 480 nm in the NW quadrant and
360 nm in the eastern semicircle with seas to 34 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 300 nm in the northern semicircle.
Epsilon will continue moving northward with increasing forward
speed through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion
toward the northeast early next week. Some fluctuations in
strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual
weakening begins on Sunday.  Epsilon could lose tropical
characteristics late Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

A 1008 mb low located near 19N82W is producing scattered
moderate convection mainly east and south of the center from 14N-
22N between 76W-84W. This system has become much better
organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward
the northwest. This system is now anticipated to move near
western Cuba this weekend and move slowly across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48
hours and the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 26W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 24W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 49W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is located from 07N-13N between
47W-52W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 61W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 kt and is crossing the Lesser
Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between
59W-62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N25W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N27W to 05N48W. The
ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near 05N50W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is located in the SE Bay of Campeche near 20N91W
with a trough extending NW of the low to 22N94W. Scattered
showers are noted along the coast of Mexico near this low.
Scattered moderate convection is in the northern and eastern
Gulf, N of 25N between 82W-88W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
noted off the coast of Louisiana. Light to moderate easterly
winds are in the eastern Gulf with light winds elsewhere. Seas
are averaging 3-4 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf through Sat. Low pressure may track northeastward from
western Cuba across the extreme SE Gulf and Florida Straits Sun.
This low has a medium chance of tropical formation. Regardless
of development, heavy rain is possible over western Cuba and
South Florida into early next week. A weak cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Sat morning, weaken further into a surface
trough from northern Florida into the SW Gulf Sat night, then
stall from South Florida to just north of the Yucatan by Sun
night. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the
basin on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA

See the Special Features section on the low pressure in the NW
Caribbean.

A 1008 mb low is located in the SW Caribbean near 10N75W with a
trough extending north of the low to 13N78W. The monsoon trough
extends west of the low to the coast of Panama/Colombia near
09N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between
73W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is in the SE Caribbean
from 11N-13N between 62W-65W. Moderate to fresh trades are in
the south-central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the
central Caribbean.

Weak low pressure near Grand Cayman Island is a little
more organized. There is a medium chance this low will develop
into a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it
moves to near western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf by
early next week, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could
impact the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and adjacent waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward
Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between
this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section above for
information on the tropical waves crossing the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends off the northeastern Florida coast from
30N81W to 32N80W. Another trough extends north of Haiti across
the Turks and Caicos Islands from 20N72W to 25N69W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 50 nm of the trough. Scattered
moderate convection is SE of Hurricane Epsilon in the central
Atlantic, N of 21N between 51W-63W. Otherwise, ridging extends
across the rest of the Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high near
34N37W. Moderate easterly winds are noted off the Florida coast
and across the Bahamas with seas averaging 9-12 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Atlantic with
seas averaging 8-12 ft.

Hurricane Epsilon is well north of the area to the northeast
of Bermuda and is expected to continue northward and become
extratropical east of Newfoundland Sun. Long- period northeast
swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of
the Bahamas through Sat. Low pressure moving northeast from
Central Cuba has a medium chance of tropical formation early
next week over waters near South Florida and the northern and
central Bahamas. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible across South Florida and the Bahamas this
weekend through early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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