[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.6N
55.3W, or 639 miles SE of Bermuda, and is currently stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 16 ft
with 12 ft seas extending 300 nm in the northern semicircle and
60 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is
within 400 nm in the eastern semicircle and 140 nm within the NW
quadrant. Epsilon is expected to have little overall motion
through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward
motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue
through midweek. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 72 hours, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength by early Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml or
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 40W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection
is related with this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 48W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from
18N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W, from
23N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted west of the wave's axis from 15N-22N between
82W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 07N39W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 06N48W. The
last section of ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave
near 06N49W to just north of Suriname near 06N56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the monsoon
trough from 02N-11N between 09W-22W. Isolated convection is
noted within 50 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to sprawl across the Gulf of Mexico
anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the south-central Gulf. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to
moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft
with upwards of 7-8 ft in the eastern Gulf.

A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters.
The pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the
eastern Gulf, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and
building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

A 1006 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N79W with a
trough extending north of the low to just south of western Cuba
near 21N82W. The monsoon trough extends off the low to the coast
of Costa Rica near 09N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted across the west-central Caribbean from 09N-
22N between 73W-74W. Moderate trades are in the central
Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3-
5 ft.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland the
Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on Tue. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave. A broad area
of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the
southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system
is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward
or north- northwestward over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A trough west of the Lesser Antilles is noted from 15N57W to
10N59W with no significant convection. Another trough is
analyzed in the central Atlantic from 2N42W to 14N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and north of the trough
from 18N-23N between 37W-44W. In the eastern Atlantic, a
stationary front extends from 31N21W to a 1010 mb low near
30N33W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of
this low in addition to moderate to locally fresh SW winds south
of the stationary front. A trough extends westward to near
27N48W. Scattered moderate convection is along this system from
24N-30N between 19W-45W.  Outside of T.S. Epsilon, moderate to
fresh easterly winds are noted in the western Atlantic off the
coast of Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas
average 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin.

Recently formed Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 25.8N
55.1W this evening, to near 26.4N 55.4W early Tue with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 27.6N 56.7W Tue
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then
continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 28.3N 58.5W
early Wed with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and
strengthen to a hurricane near 29.1N 59.8W Wed evening with
maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Epsilon is forecast
to reach near 30.2N 60.8W early Thu with maximum sustained winds
70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 32.3N 62.7W early Fri. The
pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong northeast to
east winds over the western waters through most of Thu. Expect
for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas through the period.

$$
AReinhart
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