[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 mb low is near 26N56W, or about 600 nm SE of Bermuda.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 24N
to 30N between 47W and 56W. Showers and thunderstorms activity has
increased overnight. Although environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for development during
the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical depression could
still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, upper-level
winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical cyclone
formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders
well to the southeast of Bermuda. In the meantime, there is a gale
warning in effect for the system. Please refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook and the High Seas Forecast product for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N-18N between 34W-40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from
19N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 83W, from 22N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted west of the wave's axis from 08N-18N between
83W-90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
07N27W to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 07N46W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N49W to 05N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the monsoon trough mainly east of
22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered in the Carolinas continues to build
southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the eastern Gulf
with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.
Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters.
The pressure gradient will tighten across the eastern Gulf,
resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through Panama to a
1006 mb low near 11N77W. With this, scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 12N between 76W-83W. To the northwest
scattered moderate convection prevails over Cuba and Jamaica
mainly north of 17N between 75W-80W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia and Venezuela, while
light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Seas average 3-6 ft with
up to 7 ft north of Colombia.

A tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula late today enhancing winds and convection over
the region. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a
couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week as it moves
slowly northwestward or north- northwestward over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the developing gales associated with a low pressure in the
central Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information
on the two tropical waves in this basin.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of
72W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N and E of
the low in the central Atlantic, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. A cold
front is noted in the eastern Atlantic from 31N19W to 29N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
Central Atlantic low will continue increasing winds and seas
across the NE waters. Swell generated by this system is
propagating across the waters E of the Bahamas, and will reach
the Atlantic/Caribbean passages on Tue.

$$
ERA
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