[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 mb low is near 26N56W, or about 608 nm SE of Bermuda.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
21N to 30N between 50W and 58W. This activity remains fairly
disorganized and also displaced to the east of the center of the
low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development during the next day or two. Although a
subtropical or tropical depression could still develop during that
time, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for
tropical cyclone formation to occur by late Tuesday and Wednesday
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas
Forecast product for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 36W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-15N between
35W-40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 48W, from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from
19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 83W, from 22N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 14N-18N between 82W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Senegal
near 13N17W to 08N24W to 07N34W to 09N37W to 07N40W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N40W to 07N47W. The ITCZ continues W of a
tropical wave near 06N49W to the coast of French Guiana near
06N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along
and south of the monsoon trough from 04N-11N between 13W-19W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of the monsoon trough from
11N-15N between 24W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered in the Carolinas continues to build
southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating
stationary front is located in the Straits of Florida, producing
scattered showers. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are
occurring over the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

A surface ridge will continue building across the Gulf waters.
The pressure gradient will tight across the eastern Gulf
beginning tonight, resulting in fresh to strong easterly
winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through Panama to a
1006 mb low near 11N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 14N. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Cuba
and Haiti. Moderate to fresh trades are north of Colombia and
Venezuela with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average
3-6 ft with up to 7 ft north of Colombia.

A tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning enhancing winds and
convection over the region. A broad area of low pressure is
likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern
Caribbean. Some gradual development of this system is possible
late this week as it moves slowly northwestward or north-
northwestward over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the developing gales associated with a low pressure in the
central Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information
on the two tropical waves in this basin.

A dissipating stationary front extends across the western
Atlantic from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front. North of the front, fresh to strong ENE winds are noted,
with gentle to moderate winds S of the front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
are occurring N of the Bahamas.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N and E of the low
in the central Atlantic, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. A cold front is
noted in the eastern Atlantic from 31N23W to 29N34W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front.

The stationary front will dissipate Mon. The pressure gradient
between high pressure to the north and the Central Atlantic low
will increase winds and seas across the NE waters beginning
tonight. Swell generated by this system will propagate across
the waters E of the Bahamas beginning tonight, and reach the
Atlantic/Caribbean passages on Tue.

$$
Formosa
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