[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 mb low is near 26N57W, or about 550 nm SE of Bermuda.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 22N
to 31N between 46W and 56W. This activity remains fairly
disorganized and also displaced to the east of the center of the
low. However, environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or so while the low meanders well SE
of Bermuda. There is a high chance of formation during the next
48 hours. Regardless of development, strong winds are expected
with this low, and gale conditions will develop Mon night and
continue through at least Tue. Gales could persist through the
week as the low only slowly moves toward the NW later this week.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook and the High Seas
Forecast product for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 32W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 06N-14N between 26W-35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 46W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. An associated surface low of
1013 mb is located near 15N43W. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 12N to 29W between 41W and 51W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W, from
19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 82W, from 22N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the wave from 09N-20N between 78W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N24W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W
to 07N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 06N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough from
03N- 09N between 11W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the ITCZ from 04N to 14N between 35W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered in the Carolinas continues to build
southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front
is located in the Florida Straits, producing scattered moderate
convection. A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico in the
western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are
occurringover the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

High pressure will continue building across the Gulf waters. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the eastern Gulf beginning
tonight. This will result in fresh to strong easterly winds and
building seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends through Panama to a
1007 mb low near 10N79W. Convection in the western Caribbean is
primarily associated with the tropical wave described above. The
eastern Caribbean does not have any significant convection at this
time. Moderate to fresh trades are north of Colombia and Venezuela
with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 3-6 ft with
up to 7 ft north of Colombia.

The tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning, enhancing winds and convection
over the region. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in
a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some
gradual development of this system is possible late this week as
it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the
western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the developing gales associated with a low pressure in the
central Atlantic and the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from near
31N72W, across the NW Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. A
surface trough has developed along the east coast of Florida.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in
association with this features across the Bahamas and all areas W
of 76W. North of the front, fresh to strong ENE winds are noted,
with gentle to moderate winds S of the front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
are occurring N of the Bahamas.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring N and E of the low
in the central Atlantic, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. A low pressure
trough is east of the Lesser Antilles, from 17N55W to 11N58W.
Another trough extends from 22N37W to 15N42W. A cold front is
noted in the eastern Atlantic from 31N25W to 28N35W. The earlier
pre-frontal trough associated with this cold front has dissipated.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are north of the trough with
fresh to strong SW winds south of the trough. Seas are averaging
3-5 ft across the rest of the basin.

The stationary front will dissipate Mon. The pressure gradient
between high pressure to the north and the Central Atlantic low
will increase winds and seas across the NE waters beginning
tonight. Swell generated by this system will propagate across the
waters E of the Bahamas beginning tonight, and reach the
Atlantic/Caribbean passages on Tue.

$$
KONARIK
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