[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Epsilon is centered near 25.5N
55.5W, or 635 miles SE of Bermuda, and is currently stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are up to 17 ft
with 12 ft seas extending 390 nm in the N semicircle and 180 nm
in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is within 360
nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. A
northwest or west-northwest motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected through midweek. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength on Wednesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the African coast is moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N
between 22W and the coast of Africa.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 15N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 11N-15N between 36W-42W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49/50W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 68W from
18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over NW Venezuela from 10N-12N between 69W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 85W from 23N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-24N between 73W-87W. Some of the
convection in this area is due to a broad trough of low
pressure, described below in the Caribbean section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N25W
to 07N45W to 06N56W. No significant convection is noted, aside
from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the western Gulf of Mexico
anchored by high pressure over the SE U.S. Surface troughing from
the NW Caribbean extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are over the western
Florida Straits and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh ENE winds
are noted in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate SE winds in
the western Gulf.

The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States
and broad low pressure over western Cuba and the far southeastern
Gulf will continue to result in fresh to strong easterly winds
and building seas through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds under a
weaker pressure gradient will prevail elsewhere through the
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the two tropical waves in this basin.

A 1006 mb low in the SW Caribbean is located near 12N79W with a
trough extending north of the low to just south of western Cuba
near 21N83W. A 1009 mb low is at the N end of this trough near
21N83W. The monsoon trough extends off the 1006 mb low to the
coast of Central America near the Panama/Costa Rica border.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across
the west-central Caribbean from 08N-22N between 73W-87W. Moderate
trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere. Seas average 3-5 ft, except 4-6 ft in the Yucatan
Channel.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 85W will move
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America early on
Tue. The broad area of low pressure in the west-central Caribbean
is forecast to move slowly westward toward the Yucatan peninsula
over the next day or two. Expect unsettled weather over the
western Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Epsilon and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the three tropical waves in this basin.

A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 21N42W to
15N47W. Isolated showers are along and N of the trough axis. In
the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N20W to
29N34W. A surface trough extends from 29N34W to 26N48W. Moderate
to locally fresh SW winds are south of the stationary front.
Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 16W-26W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere near the trough. Outside of T.S.
Epsilon, moderate to fresh easterly winds were noted in earlier
scatterometer data in the western Atlantic off the coast of
Florida and the Bahamas with seas up to 9 ft. Seas are higher a
little farther east and closer to Epsilon. Seas average 3-5 ft
across the rest of the basin.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will move to near 27N56W Tue afternoon,
then strengthen to a hurricane near 29N59.5W Wed afternoon.
Epsilon is forecast to reach near 31N61.5W Thu afternoon with
maximum sustained winds near 75 kt. Epsilon will change little in
intensity as it moves north of the area to near 33N63W by Fri
afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and Epsilon will maintain fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over the waters west of 70W through Thu.
Expect for northeast to east swell to impact the waters north
and northeast of the Bahamas through the period.

$$
Hagen
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