[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N23W 10N25W 01N26W,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 10N to
18N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/51W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: little
to no precipitation is directly related to the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea, along 60W/61W,
from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N to 18N between 54W and 60W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Strong upper
level winds are expected to inhibit significant development. The
system will be moving west-northwestward during the next couple
of days. It is possible that this feature may help to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, in parts of the Lesser
Antilles tonight and on Thursday morning; in the Virgin Islands,
in Puerto Rico, and in the eastern Caribbean Sea late Thursday
into Friday; and in Hispaniola on Friday night into Saturday.
This system has a low chance of development through the next 48
hours, and during the next 5 days. Please, read the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/90W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 15N to 18N
within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere between the tropical wave and the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 06N24W. The ITCZ is along 04N/06N from 26W to
40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
between 20W and 30W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N
southward from 60W eastward.

A surface trough is along 43W/44W from 07N to 15N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 300
nm to the west of the surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak in the Gulf of
Mexico. A broad ridge extends from Georgia, southwestward, to
the coast of Mexico near 21N.

A weak surface trough is along 92W/93W from the coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 22N. The GFS model
for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a cyclonic circulation center
near the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no precipitation appears
to be related directly just to the cyclonic wind flow that
accompanies the surface trough and the 500 mb/700 mb cyclonic
center.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The
front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico
Mexico on Friday evening, and then stall and dissipate in the SE
Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. Fresh NE winds are expected to
the north of the front on Friday and on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends across the Caribbean Sea in
an east-to-west sense. The westernmost part of the upper level
trough reaches Central America from Nicaragua/Honduras and to
Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 70W
eastward, and from 15N northward in the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward.

A tropical wave is along 88W/90W from 22N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 15N to 18N within 180 nm to the
east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
between the tropical wave and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots.  Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 18N between 54W and
60W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 50W
and 60W. Strong upper level winds are expected to inhibit
significant development. The system will be moving
west-northwestward during the next couple of days. It is
possible that this feature may help to produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, in parts of the Lesser Antilles
tonight and on Thursday morning; in the Virgin Islands, in
Puerto Rico, and in the eastern Caribbean Sea late Thursday into
Friday; and in Hispaniola on Friday night into Saturday. This
system has a low chance of development through the next 48
hours, and during the next 5 days. Please, read the latest NHC
Tropical Weather
Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more
details.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 15N
between 80W and Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 15N southward from 70W westward, in the waters
of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Widespread rainshowers, that are associated with a tropical wave
near the Lesser Antilles, will move into the NE Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and reach the Mona Passage on Friday. The wind speeds
will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea on Thursday
evening, as high pressure builds to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W to 26N73W, across the
Bahamas, to 23N80W near the coast of Cuba. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N to Andros Island
in the Bahamas between the Bahamas and 82W in the Straits of
Florida.

An upper level trough passes through 32N42W, toward the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea, and eventually westward to Central
America. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 27N
to 32N between 37W and 41W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 22N northward between 48W and 60W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward from 30W
westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 28N
northward from 28W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday
night. The front will extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys, on
Saturday evening, and then stall and dissipate through Sunday.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected to the
north of the front during this weekend. A broad low pressure
area will approach 65W late on Monday.

$$
mt
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