[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 24W, from 18N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
14N-17N between 22W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 49W, from 15N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from
09N-13N between 39W-48W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis
near near 15N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 13N-17N between 53W-60W. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to inhibit significant development while the system
moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless
of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles
today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and
Hispaniola on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for
more details.

A W Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 88W, from Yucatan southward,
moving W around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
16N-19N between 84W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal, near 14N16W, to
05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 09N48W, with a break for
the tropical wave near 49W, then resumes at 08N51W to the coast
of Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from the convection noted with the
wave near 49W, no deep convection is observed with the Atlantic
monsoon trough/ITCZ this evening. The NE Pacific monsoon trough
extends across Central America at 10N83W to 12N78W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 09N-13N between 80W-83W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge is location just north of the Gulf of
Mexico, promoting generally gentle to moderate breeze E winds
across the Gulf this afternoon. Seas are 4 ft or less across the
Gulf waters. No deep convection is occurring.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico Fri evening, from the
Florida Keys to Tuxpan Mexico Sat morning, then stall and
dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun. Fresh NE winds are
expected north of the front Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak N-S pressure gradient is promoting only gentle to moderate
trades across the Caribbean this evening. Likewise, seas are 4 ft
or less. Aside from the deep convection noted in association with
the tropical wave near 88W and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, no
other significant deep convection is occurring across the
Caribbean. Scattered showers are present from 14N-18N between
61W-68W, in association with an upper trough.

Scattered showers and tstorms will accompany a tropical wave
moving through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Fresh winds and
building seas will follow in behind the wave to the Leeward
Islands tonight, then move into the NE Caribbean on Thu and reach
the Mona Passage Fri. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-
central Caribbean Thu evening as high pressure builds north of
the area. These winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N68W 25N76W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front and winds are
gentle to moderate from the northeast behind the front. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W to
27N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of
the trough. Aside for seas to 8 ft near the tropical wave near
59W, seas are 6 ft or less across the remainder of the tropical
north Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, and
extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, where it will
stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. A
broad low pressure will approach 65W from the east late Monday.

$$
Landsea
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