[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 24W, from 18N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
14N-17N between 22W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 49W, from 15N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from
09N-13N between 39W-48W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis
near near 15N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 13N-17N between 53W-60W. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to inhibit significant development while the system
moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless
of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles
today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and
Hispaniola on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for
more details.

A W Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 88W, from Yucatan southward,
moving W around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
16N-19N between 84W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal, near 14N16W, to
05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 09N48W, with a break for
the tropical wave near 49W, then resumes at 08N51W to the coast
of Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from the convection noted with the
wave near 49W, no deep convection is observed with the monsoon
trough/ITCZ this evening.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to
16N94W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis.
The remainder of the Gulf is under surface ridging with mostly
fair weather.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening, then
stall and weaken over the SE Gulf by Sat night. Fresh NE
winds are expected north of the front Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean and another wave is
approaching the E Caribbean. A surface trough is over the
central Caribbean from 18N74W to 10N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-14N between 73W-80W. This convection
is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A tropical wave will move through the Lesser Antilles
later today and tonight. Fresh winds and building seas will
follow in behind the wave to the Leeward Islands tonight, then
move into the NE Caribbean on Thu and reach the Mona Passage
early Fri. Winds will increase to fresh in the south-central
Caribbean Thu evening as high pressure builds north of the area.
These winds will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W 26N75W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 24N44W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is over the E Atlantic
near 33N28W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, and
extend from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, where it
will stall and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas are expected north of the front this
weekend.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net